US Market Update: India and many other countries are celebrating Eid Ul Fitr on Monday, March 31, 2025. Hence, the stock market, banks and offices are likely closed. But is the case the same for Wall Street, the largest stock market in the world? So far in a month, Dow Jones and S&P 500 have tumbled by 5% to 6%, while the Nasdaq Composite underperformed the most with a downside of over 8%. This week, the US market will be influenced by key economic data and US Fed Chair Powell's speech, where investors will look for a rate cut outlook.
US Market Update:
Dow Jones closed at 41,583.90 last week on March 28, down by 715.80 points or 1.7%. However, on monthly performance, the index has plunged by 2,257.01 points or 5.15%.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index dipped by 112.37 points or 1.97% to end at 5,580.94 on Friday. Overall, in a month, the decline is about 373.56 points or 6.27%.
However, it would be Nasdaq Composite, the tech-heavy index, who has taken the most beating in March. Due to a sharp selloff in mega-cap tech stocks, the Nasdaq nosedived by 1,524.29 points or 8.09% in a month. On March 28th, the index dipped by 481.04 points or 2.70% to end at 17,322.99.
Is the US Market Closed On March 31?
Unlike India, the USA has celebrated Eid on March 30, following the calendar of Saudi Arabia. Hence, the US stock market will be open for trading on March 31.
On Monday, in the early trade, US stock futures declined as investors focused on Liberation Day, where 47th President Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on imported cars and announce reciprocal tariffs which are expected to come into effect from April 2.
As per Trading Economics, over the weekend, Trump stated he "couldn't care less" if foreign automakers respond by raising prices. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the president is pressuring his advisors to take a more aggressive stance on trade policy. Last week, major stock indexes initially rallied but later resumed their downturn.
US Stock Market Weekly Outlook:
Nate Peterson, Senior Derivatives Analyst at Charles Schwab in his note said, "My primary forecast for next week is "Volatile," with an overall secondary reading of "Slightly Bearish." Given today's near-2.0% sell-off across the board, I would suspect we see a counter trend (bullish) bounce at some point next week, but I'm just not sure how sustainable it will be. What could challenge my outlook? If the March 13th lows hold (meaning we don't get a close below the closing lows on this date) next week, this could help improve investor sentiment and bring in some technical buying. Also, if Trump's reciprocal tariffs turn out to be tepid or are postponed, this could also provide enough of an excuse to bring in some dip buyers."
Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, believes the week ahead is likely to be volatile due to US tariff policy developments, the impact of US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 25 % tariff on finished vehicle imports effective April 3 and US Fed Chair Powell's Speech.
Singhania added, key U.S. economic data, including the Composite PMI and Initial Jobless Claims for March, will be released on Thursday, April 03. The U.S. Global Composite PMI Output Index, a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, is projected to be 53.5, significantly higher than the previous reading of 51.6. Meanwhile the Initial Jobless Claims for March are expected to come in at 226k.
Meanwhile, Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking said, despite favorable macroeconomic data, US markets edged lower, reflecting ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact of tariff wars. Investors remain wary of rising inflationary pressures, which could limit the US Federal Reserve's ability to moderate interest rates.
Key Events To Watch Out:
March 31, Monday: Chicago PMI
April 1, Tuesday, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Index
April 2, Wednesday: ADP Employment Change, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Factory Orders, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
April 3, Thursday: Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, ISM Services, Trade Balance
April 4: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Workweek, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate.
For investment related articles, business news and mutual fund advise
Click it and Unblock the Notifications
Sign in with Google