US F-1 Visa Issuance to Indian Students Drops 38% in 2024; Trump’s Policies Still Casting a Shadow?

Despite common perceptions attributing the downturn in US student visa issuances to Donald Trump's policies, the reality demonstrates a broader trend affecting Indian students. The notable reduction in the approval of education visas by the United States aligns with an overarching decline, making the aspiration of attending American colleges and universities more challenging for students from India. This shift precedes Trump's presidency, indicating factors beyond political leadership influencing the situation.

The F-1 visa, essential for international students aiming to pursue academic programs in the US, constitutes over 90% of foreign student visa approvals. This visa category is distinct from the M-1 visas, which cater to students enrolled in vocational or non-academic courses at various educational institutions like community colleges and vocational schools. The F-1 visa permits temporary residence for educational purposes, allowing students to study at accredited institutions across the United States.

In recent years, the process of obtaining student visas in the US, particularly the F-1 visa, has experienced fluctuations. Following a significant dip in 2020 due to the global pandemic, there was a hopeful increase. However, the period between 2023 and 2024 witnessed a downturn in applications, challenging the trend of recovery. This decline aligns with broader patterns of reduced F-1 visa approvals, underscoring the growing hurdles for international students, including those from India, aspiring to study in the United States.

A survey by Keystone Education Group in November 2024 revealed that Trump's political stance and policies had rendered the US a less attractive destination for international students. A notable 42% of students from various countries expressed reluctance to consider the US for their studies, highlighting the impact of political climate on educational choices.

Global Decline in US Student Visa Approvals

Over the past decade, there has been a significant decrease in the approval of F-1 visas globally. Initially, in the fiscal year 2014, there were 5.95 lakh approvals, but by 2023, this number fell to 4.45 lakh, with refusals increasing correspondingly. This 41% decline over ten years points to an increasingly stringent visa approval process for international students, affecting applicants worldwide.

This downward trend persisted into the fiscal year 2023-24, with 6.79 lakh applications for F-1 visas, of which only 4 lakh were approved. The approval rate dropped from 77.48% in 2014 to roughly 58.9% in 2023-24, marking a substantial decrease in the likelihood of securing a student visa for the US.

Specific Challenges for Indian Students

Indian students, in particular, have faced a tougher battle in securing F-1 visas. Reports from December 2024 indicated a 38% reduction in F-1 student visas for Indian nationals in the initial nine months of 2024 compared to the same timeframe in 2023. This decrease is part of a wider trend of declining visa approvals for Indian applicants, which began well before the latest US presidential elections.

For the first time in over a decade, in 2024, India outpaced China as the leading source of international students in the United States, as per The Open Doors Report for 2023-24 by the Institute of International Education (IIE). However, this milestone came amidst rising F-1 visa rejection rates for Indian students, which started increasing in 2023, predating Donald Trump's tenure as president.

The approval rate for Indian students' F-1 visas dropped from 65.03% in the fiscal year 2018 to 63.74% in 2023, with a corresponding rise in rejection rates. The decline continued into the first four months of FY 2025, with fewer F-1 visas approved for Indian students compared to the same period in the previous financial year.

Despite assumptions linking the recent visa decline to Trump's administration's hardline immigration stance, the reduction began under former President Biden's tenure. This highlights a broader policy shift rather than a direct result of Trump's political influence, affecting the prospects of Indian students aspiring to study in the US.

In summary, the challenges faced by Indian students in obtaining US student visas are reflective of broader trends and policies rather than the influence of any single administration. The evolving landscape suggests that aspiring students must navigate an increasingly complex visa process to fulfill their educational ambitions in the United States.