Is US Heading Towards A Recession? Trump's Tariffs Weighing Big 

With the US economy facing uncertainties, the specter of a recession looms, especially in light of recent economic indicators and the impact of President Donald Trump's trade policies. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model, a closely watched forecaster of U.S. economic activity, projects a noticeable contraction in the first quarter of 2025, predicting a -2.4% annualized rate of decline. This marks a potential onset of a recession, defined technically as two successive quarters of negative GDP growth. This anticipated downturn would represent the most severe economic contraction since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter of 2020.

Various signals point towards a potential weakening of the American economic landscape. Consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest in 15 months, layoffs have reached a peak not seen in 4.5 years, and the stock market has experienced significant downturns. Specifically, the S&P 500 index fell 6% from its highest point on February 19, a direct result of the tariff implementations that have unsettled Wall Street. This confluence of factors has shifted models to predict a higher likelihood of a recession within the U.S. For instance, economists from Goldman Sachs have revised their recession probability from 15% to 20% due to the "key risk" posed by Trump's economic strategies. Similarly, Yardeni Research has adjusted their forecast, now seeing a 35% chance of a downturn, up from 20%, attributing this increased risk to the barrage of executive orders, dismissals, and tariffs from the Trump administration.

However, not all indicators suggest an imminent downturn. Before the summer of 2023, Goldman's models showed a more than 30% chance of a recession, yet the U.S. economy managed to string together seven successive quarters of over 1.5% GDP growth. This resilience, coupled with a bullish stock market despite restrictive monetary policies, indicates the U.S. might not be on the brink of a recession after all. Additionally, it's worth noting that the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model might be overly pessimistic, as its recent downward revision largely stems from the accounting of gold imports during a surge in safe-haven investments. In contrast, the New York Fed's projection for the first quarter suggests a robust 2.9% growth.

The potential economic slowdown has been further compounded by the trade war intensifying beyond expectations, particularly affecting North America and likely to have significant spillovers on U.S. growth. JPMorgan Chase economists Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton noted that U.S. policies are increasingly less favorable towards businesses, a shift that could further dampen economic prospects.

Amidst these economic challenges, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced concerns that the economy might be starting to "roll a bit," attributing part of the issue to an overreliance on government spending. Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its economic forecasts, expecting the GDP growth rate to drop from an anticipated 2.2% to 1.7% by the end of 2025 and to 2% by the end of 2026, factoring in the effects of tariffs.

In historical context, the U.S. has faced 11 recessions over the past 75 years, with the last two being notably impactful: the Great Recession of the late 2000s and the swift, severe contraction in 2020 due to COVID-19. Despite the current economic unease, the job market remains relatively stable. The unemployment rate in February was at 4.1%, a figure consistent with periods of economic stability, though job growth has slowed, marking the poorest February performance since 2019.

In conclusion, while the U.S. navigates through a period of economic uncertainty with rising recession probabilities, evidence suggests that the economy retains underlying strengths. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether these strengths can withstand the pressures of trade wars, policy shifts, and market adjustments.