Prediction: Nifty Dropped Over 2,068 Pts From 200-Days SMA: How Low Can Bears Drag Nifty?

Nifty Prediction: Due to relentless selling in 2025 so far, the Nifty 50 is now moving closer to its 52-week low of 21,281.45, which was recorded on the day of Lok Sabha election results on June 4, 2024. Year-to-date, Nifty has erased over 7%.On Monday alone, the benchmark 5-day and 10-day SMAs, while trading lower by 2225.4 points from their 150-day SMA. Going ahead, the bearish tone is likely to pertain in the Indian stock market and Nifty could move towards 21,800-21,600 by the end of this week. However, an Elara Capital expert believes the latest selling pressure is just the first wave, and Nifty could be well below fall under the 20,000 mark.

Nifty 50 Price:

On Monday, Nifty 50 slipped by 120 points to hit an intraday low of 22,004.70. This is 723.25 points away from its 52-week low of 21,281.45. Also, this is the lowest level of 2025 for Nifty 50. On a month-on-month basis, Nifty is down by 1,261.30 points or 5.40%. While year-to-date, Nifty plunged by 1,641 points or 6.91%.

As per Trendlyne data, Nifty is down from its 5-day SMA of 22513.3, 10-day SMA of 22724.7, 50-day SMA of 23291.4, 100-day SMA of 23822.5, 150-day SMA of 24230.1, and 200-Day SMA of 24073.2.

What Are SMAs? They are simple moving averages (SMAs) which means that these indicators are the average price of a stock or benchmark which is a crucial financial metric which helps in identifying the support and resistance levels.

From its long-term moving averages of 150-day and 200-day SMAs, Nifty is down by 2,225.4 and 2068.5 points.

How Low Can Nifty Fall?

For weekly outlook, as per Choice Broking report, Nifty 50 has corrected 15.87% from its all-time high, marking a five-month losing streak, the longest since 2000. Weak sentiment persists due to slowing growth, declining earnings, and foreign outflows. Global uncertainties, including Trump's tariff announcements, have further dampened risk appetite. Investors await the December quarter GDP data on Friday for further direction.

On the technical front, Choice Broking added, the Nifty has formed a strong bearish candle on the daily chart, signalling indecision and volatility. The short-term trend remains weak, with resistance seen near 22,600 and a critical hurdle at 22,800. As long as the index trades below 22,200, a sell-on-rise strategy is preferred, keeping upside moves limited. A decisive breakout above 22,800 would be necessary for a trend reversal, potentially shifting momentum in favor of buyers.

On the downside, the brokerage highlighted that 22,000 is a key support level, and a breakdown below this could accelerate selling pressure towards 21,800-21,600. If Nifty fails to hold these levels, further declines cannot be ruled out. However, strong support is visible at 21,800 and 21,500, as indicated by Open Interest (OI) data, which suggests traders are positioning for stability around these levels. A sustained hold above 22,000 could provide temporary relief, but the broader sentiment remains cautious.

Meanwhile, Biju Samuel of Elara Capital in an interview with CNBC TV18 said, Nifty could find support levels of around 19,500. He said, "This is currently the first wave of the bear market and that this may continue for 18-24 months. He added, that in the bearish zone, we are five months in currently.

Looking ahead, we forecast the NSE Nifty 50 Index to be priced at 21954 by the end of this quarter and at 21451 in one year, according to Trading Economics global macro models projections and analysts' expectations.