Goldman Sachs Forecast: Impact Of US Tariffs On India's Economy

President Trump's declaration that India, alongside the European Union and China, has "the highest tariffs in the world" brings to light the profound impact US tariffs could have on India's economic landscape. A recent analysis by Goldman Sachs suggests that India's GDP could face a reduction of 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points as a result of the US's proposed tariffs. This examination looks into two main scenarios of tariff implementation: one focusing on country-level reciprocity and the other on product-level reciprocity. With India's GDP intricately linked to its export relationship with the US, the increased tariffs could significantly disrupt this dynamic.

The analysis provided by Goldman Sachs delves into the repercussions of the US adopting a strategy of reciprocal tariffs, which President Trump aimed to outline through a memo issued on February 13. This strategic plan calls for the equalization of tariffs, taxes, and non-tariff barriers with other nations. According to the study, should the US decide to escalate tariffs across all imports by the average tariff differential between specific countries and itself, Indian imports to the US could see an effective tariff rate jump by 6.5 percentage points.

In the broader context of India-US trade relations, there has been a notable increase in India's goods trade surplus with the US over the past decade. From a $17 billion surplus in FY14, this figure has doubled to $35 billion by FY24, accounting for 1.0% of India's GDP. This growth is largely attributed to the augmented trade surplus in electronic items, spurred by the fiscal incentives through the PLI scheme introduced in 2020. Moreover, the tariff structure comparison reveals that India imposes higher rates than the US across most product categories, with significant disparities in sectors like agriculture, textiles, and pharmaceuticals.

Goldman Sachs outlines three potential approaches for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs: country-level reciprocity, product-level reciprocity, and inclusion of non-tariff barriers. The first approach, country-level reciprocity, proposes raising tariffs on all imports by the average tariff difference between a specific country and the US, which would notably increase US effective tariff rates on Indian imports by about 6.5 percentage points. The second approach, product-level reciprocity, suggests equalizing tariff rates on individual products with those imposed by trading partners, potentially leading to an 11.5 percentage points increase in US effective tariff rates on Indian imports. Lastly, the third approach, which includes non-tariff barriers, is seen as the most complex due to the challenges in quantifying non-tariff barrier costs for each trading partner.

As we delve into the potential economic impact of these tariff adjustments, it becomes evident that India's exports to the US, which account for about 2.0% of its GDP in 2023, place India among the emerging market economies with the smallest exposure. The key to understanding the economic repercussions lies in analyzing how responsive Indian exports are to changes in US tariffs, particularly focusing on the price elasticity of American demand for Indian goods. The analysis, incorporating various levels of US tariff increases on Indian imports and elasticity estimates from existing research, suggests that these adjustments could reduce India's GDP growth by 0.1-0.3 percentage points across different scenarios.

Taking into consideration a scenario where the US enforces a universal reciprocal tariff across all nations, the appropriate measure for evaluating a domestic economy's exposure to the US would be its domestic value-added content in gross exports to US final demand. India, with its domestic value-added content in gross exports standing at approximately 4.0% of GDP, finds itself in a relatively central position amongst its Asian counterparts. Based on this metric, the potential impact on domestic GDP growth, factoring in a 6.5-11.5 percentage point increase in US average effective tariff rates, would likely range between 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points.

In conclusion, the analysis underscores the significant effects that US tariffs could have on India, spotlighting the intricacies of their trade dynamics and the potential economic ramifications. With India's trade surplus and its positioning amidst global economies, the evolving tariff landscape presents both challenges and critical areas for policy focus.