Gold rates have witnessed a relentless wild rally in 2025, hitting back-to-back fresh lifetime highs. YTD, gold prices in India have gained by 55-60%, tracking a strong bull run in international gold prices. Comex hovers near $4,200 and is expected to cross $4,500 by the end of 2025, while the 24 carat gold price in India is nearing Rs 1.3 lakh per 10 grams. Due to their historic milestone, gold rates see their strongest performance in a calendar year since 1979.
Currently, the 10 grams gold price in 24 carat is at Rs 1,28,890, while the prices are at Rs 1,18,150 in 22 carat and at Rs 96,970 in 18 carat. These are new all-time high levels of gold and higher by 65% year-to-date. In the start of January, 24 carat and 22 carat gold prices were merely at Rs 78,000 and Rs 71,500 per 10 grams.
Spot Gold Price:
Meanwhile, the spot gold price continues to extend its bull rally and is above $4,190 per ounce, moving closer to $4,200 per ounce. In a year, spot gold has gained by a whopping 57%.
This makes 2025 the strongest year for gold since 1979.
There are similarities between both 2025 and 1979 that sparked this extraordinary performance by gold. In the late 1970s, the global economy faced oil shocks, geopolitical unrest like the Iranian Revolution, high inflation and global uncertainties.
Few of the reasons are similar in 2025. The year has witnessed trade war tensions due to US President Donald Trump's tariffs, geopolitical turmoil, weak currency and expectations of monetary policy easing. And the US government shutdown that entered its second week, is another icing on the cake for safe haven demand.
Traditionally and typically, gold is seen as a haven during uncertainties. According to experts, the latest gold rally reflects nervousness and tensions in the economy, pushing investors to search for safety of their portfolio, while the surge in stocks hints at optimism for future growth.
In 2025, both gold and stocks are on the upside, but the former has surpassed the latter at a great speed. For instance, Sensex is up by 5.06% YTD and Dow Jones has gained nearly 9.2%. Nifty is up nearly 7% and Nasdaq is up nearly 17%.
David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors told CNN that the stock market and gold are marching to the beat of two very different drummers.
Meanwhile, a World Gold Council's report said, indeed, gold has been gaining ground fast. But it's important to put things into perspective.
For instance, gold's performance in 2025 has been compared to 1979 from an annual perspective, but the price rallies have varied in duration and magnitude, driven by the underlying macro environment.
Also, gold is only 735 days into the current rally in 2025, while previous major rallies have lasted on average 1,062 days. Additionally, the pace at which the gold price has increased is notable such as gold climbed from US$3,500/oz to US$4,000/oz in just 36 days, compared to an average of 1,036 days between prior US$500/oz incremental milestones.
Experts at WGC believe that this year's rally has been fuelled by increased investment demand, led by the West, as investors worldwide seek safe haven amid geopolitical tensions, dollar weakness, expectations of further Fed cuts, and fears of an equity market correction. Continued central bank buying has helped too, both in driving off-take and also cementing the positive narrative.
Will Gold's Wild Run Dim In Diwali Festival?
Gold has more steam for upside!
"As we enter the festive season, starting from Dhanteras, Diwali and wedding celebrations, gold and silver continues to remain a quintessential representation of prosperity and good fortune," Samit Guha, Managing Director & CEO at MMTC-PAMP told GoodReturns.
While core wedding and festive consumers will continue to purchase these precious metals, the more cautious customers are expected to defer purchase or choose lower grammage and karat products, he added.
Furthermore, Guha highlighted investors and young consumers are pivoting towards digital gold, gold ETFs as an investment option with an increased acceptance of silver due to its rising industrial demands. He added, "Gold's inherent value as a safe haven asset and hedge against uncertainties has ensured the demand remains robust."
Moreover, there are reasons to believe that gold's run has not run out of steam, especially in the broader macroeconomic context. For example, high real rates that are likely coming down, tight credit spreads that can widen, lofty stock markets that can easily correct, among others.
Decoding further, WGC's note added, short-term volatility may arise from portfolio rebalancing, market corrections, and technical signals, while long-term resilience is underpinned by a broadening investor base, persistent policy uncertainty and a gold investment market that still has room to grow.
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