Gold rates in India started on a volatile note in August 2025. However, in the trading week from August 4th to 8th, gold prices are likely to see a shift due to the onset of the festive season with Raksha Bandhan that will be celebrated on August 9th across the country. MCX gold is expected to hit or trade near Rs 1 lakh mark. Could the festive blossom lead the yellow metal to new highs? It will be keenly watched!
Gold prices across 24 carat, 22 carat, and 18 carat were unchanged on August 3rd; however, the performance came after a sharp surge on August 2nd. The rates of 100 grams and 10 grams of gold climbed a whopping Rs 15,300 and Rs 1,530 in 24 carat on Saturday. This comes after the rates of 100 grams and 10 grams of gold decreased by Rs 6,600 and Rs 660, respectively, from August 1 to July 31.
Now, 24-carat gold prices stood at Rs 1,01,340 in 10 grams, at Rs 10,13,400 in 100 grams, at Rs 81,072 in 8 grams, and at Rs 10,134 per 1 gram. These prices are near their all-time highs.
Also, 22-carat gold prices were at Rs 92,890 per 10 grams, at Rs 9,28,900 per 100 grams, at Rs 74,312 per 8 grams, and at Rs 9,289 per 1 gram.
Meanwhile, 18 grams of gold rates stood at Rs 76,000 per 10 grams, at Rs 7,60,000 per 100 grams, at Rs 60,800 per 8 grams, and at Rs 7,600 per 1 gram.
MCX Gold Price, Silver Prices:
MCX gold with October 2025 expiry is hovering above the Rs 99,700 per 10-gram mark. Last week, on Friday, the bullion stood at Rs 99,735 per 10 grams after hitting an intraday high of Rs 99,975 per 10 grams. During the closing bell, the price was mildly down.
Additionally, MCX silver with September 2025 expiry, was also lower marginally to close at Rs 1,10,224 per 1 kg, after hitting an intraday high of Rs 1,11,000 per 1kg on August 2nd.
Gold prices are already moving towards their record highs. A mild decline in international gold prices could impact the performance of gold prices in India on August 4th.
Spot Gold Price:
On August 4th, in the early hours, spot gold inched lower to trade around $3,350 per ounce.
Gold prices started the week weak with a bearish trend after falling for the third consecutive week earlier. Although the downside is limited, silver prices took the biggest hit compared to gold.
Gold Prices In India Weekly Outlook:
According to SMC Global Securities' note, the bullion market witnessed a roller-coaster week, with gold prices managing to post a mild 0.5% gain while silver slumped over 3%. The pressure came largely from a stronger US dollar, following former President Trump's announcement of aggressive new trade tariffs. Trump reaffirmed a 10% global base tariff and introduced retaliatory duties of up to 41% on nations without trade agreements with the US. Additionally, he imposed a 40% levy on goods suspected of being rerouted through third countries, further stoking global trade uncertainty.
Also, in the US, both core and headline PCE price indices for June came in higher than expected, reinforcing fears of sticky inflation. Combined with lower-than-expected jobless claims, the data painted a picture of a resilient labor market, making a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve more uncertain.
SMC's analysts believe that this macroeconomic backdrop added to the volatility in bullion prices. India's gold consumption in 2025 is expected to fall to a five-year low, with estimates between 600 and 700 metric tons - down from 802.8 tons last year.
As per the latest World Gold Council report, record-high gold prices have dented jewellery demand, despite a modest rise in investment interest. On a global scale, gold demand rose 3% year-on-year to 1,249 metric tons in Q2. Notably, ETF inflows stood at 170 tons, a sharp reversal from last year's outflows, although lower than the 226.6 tons seen in Q1.
Looking ahead to the current week, SMC's note said, "gold on COMEX is expected to trade in the $3,280-$3,420 range, while silver may move between $35 and $38. On MCX, gold could correct and trade between Rs. 94,300-Rs. 99,800, with silver likely in the Rs. 1,03,600-Rs. 1,14,000 band. Volatility is expected to remain elevated, and traders are advised to exercise caution."
Furthermore, Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion and Jewellers Association and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures, said, "Gold prices climbed following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and downward revisions to figures from the previous two months, which triggered a sell-off on Wall Street and renewed demand for safe-haven assets. The disappointing employment report has also raised the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September, a move that typically supports gold as it doesn't yield interest."
He added that this market attention is likely to remain focused on developments related to tariffs and the Federal Reserve. Additionally, investors will be monitoring any signs of rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia, with President Donald Trump's August 8 deadline to end the war looming.
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