Gold rates in India halted their 3 consecutive-day rally on July 4th, with 24 carat gold in 100 grams crashing by Rs 6,000 and 10 grams down by Rs 600. According to experts, gold is trading in a narrow range following the release of US job data. The next key driving factor in gold is likely to be the 90-day truce deadline between the US and China regarding trade tariffs. Tactical traders are recommended to hold long positions in gold.
On July 5th, gold prices dropped significantly. 100 grams of 24-carat gold plunged by Rs 6,000 to Rs 9,87,300, while the price of 10 grams tumbled by Rs 600 to Rs 98,730. This comes after both 100 grams and 10 grams of gold prices surged by a whopping Rs 20,700 and Rs 2,070 from July 1st to July 3rd.
Also, 22 carat gold prices dipped by Rs 5,500 to Rs 9,05,000 in 100 grams, and declined by Rs 550 to Rs 90,500 in 10 grams on Friday.
MCX Gold, Silver Prices:
The MCX gold price, with August 2025 expiry, was also under pressure. The bullion closed below the Rs 97,000 mark to Rs 96,988 per 10 grams, down by Rs 2, after hitting an intraday low of Rs 96,735 per 10 grams on July 4th.
On the contrary, mild gains were recorded in the MCX silver price, which has a September 2025 expiry. This precious metal closed at Rs 1,08,438 per 1kg, up by Rs 9.
Spot Gold Price:
Gold prices in India showed volatility despite the spot gold price climbing near $3,340 per ounce. As per Trading Economics, spot gold headed for a weekly advance as concerns over the US fiscal deficit and lingering tariff uncertainty boosted the metal's safe-haven appeal.
Gold Price Outlook On July 5th and Near Term:
According to Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited (RSBL), private-sector payrolls unexpectedly dropped in June for the first time in over two years, causing new worries about the resilience of the job market and bolstering the argument for a more liberal monetary policy.
Additionally, he highlighted that President Trump declared that the United States and Vietnam had reached a trade agreement that would allow American goods to have more access to the Vietnamese market in exchange for the lifting of some of the punitive tariffs on Vietnamese goods. Trump said the United States will impose 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods in exchange, rather than the 46% duties he had declared in April.
He further said, "As July 9th draws near, the agreement is interpreted as a sign that other agreements might be in the works and as hope that trade tensions will not rise again. Additionally, the accord stoked expectations for future bilateral trade agreements."
Accordingly, gold is expected trade in the range of $3300 (~Rs 96000) and $3400 (~Rs 98500).
What Should Investors Do In Gold?
In Motilal Oswal's view, there has been an impressive rally in gold prices and were fortunate to have been part of this uptrend since 2019.
Several drivers have fueled this rally, many of which the brokerage believe are already reflected in prices:
- Risk premium from geopolitical tensions has eased, especially among Israel-Iran and Russia -Ukraine relations
- Trade-related uncertainties are subsiding as tariff disputes calm down
- Expectations of rate cuts are delayed which otherwise could have lifted prices further
- Central banks continue to buy gold, though the overall quantity has decreased significantly
However, for gold prices to advance further, the market now requires fresh, significant catalysts.
Data from Motilal revealed that so far, we've witnessed gains exceeding 30%, and historical data over the past 25 years shows that Comex gold has never achieved more than 32% returns in a single year.
At the current stage, the brokerage's note said, "we need to wait for more clarity or a decisive trigger, so a period of consolidation may be appropriate," adding, "Should any longer-term triggers emerge, we would consider re-entering to continue our successful run."
To investors, Motilal's note said, "Tactical traders holding long positions may consider hedging or exiting on sustained close below Rs.96,000."
Gold Prices In Major Cities Currently:
Gold Prices In Chennai: 10 grams gold price is at Rs 98,720 in 24 carat and Rs 90,490 in 22 carat.
Gold Prices In Mumbai: Here also, 10 grams gold price is at Rs 98,720 in 24 carat and Rs 90,490 in 22 carat.
Gold Prices In Delhi: However, in the national capital, 10 grams gold price is higher at Rs 98,870 in 24 carat, and at Rs 90,640 in 22 carat.
Gold Prices In Bangalore: In this city, 10 grams gold price is at Rs 98,720 in 24 carat and Rs 90,490 in 22 carat.
Disclaimer: The recommendations made above are by market analysts and are not advised by either the author, nor Greynium Information Technologies. The author, nor the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision.
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