Gold rates in India surged for three consecutive days, with 24 carat in 100 grams and 10 grams gold rallying by Rs 20,700 and Rs 2,070 respectively. On July 4th, gold prices will be swayed by weak US jobs data. MCX gold price is floating near Rs 97,000 levels.
On July 3rd, 100 grams of gold price rallied by Rs 4,400 in 24 carat, while 10 grams of gold price surged by Rs 440. The buying sentiment has remained strong since the start of July. 100 grams and 10 grams gold prices soared by Rs 4,900 and Rs 490 on July 2nd. While the prices were up by a whopping Rs 11,400 and Rs 1,140 on July 1st.
Cumulatively, from July 1st to July 3rd, 24 carat gold prices in 100 grams and 10 grams rose by Rs 20,700 and Rs 2,070.
At present, the price of 100 grams of gold stood at Rs 9,93,400 in 24 carat, at Rs 9,10,600 in 22 carat, and at Rs 7,45,100 in 18 carat. Moreover, 10 grams of gold are available at Rs 99,340 in 24 carat, at Rs 91,060 in 22 carat, and Rs 74,510 in 18 carat.
Gold gained momentum due to weakness in the dollar, which reached an over 3-year low and traded below 97 against a basket of currencies. When the dollar is weak, safe-haven assets like gold see an increase in investors' appetite. Dollar is also trending on the expectation of a 100-125 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in the coming policies.
"Gold prices have climbed for three consecutive days, driven by continued weakness in the US Dollar. Disappointing private payroll data has strengthened expectations of an earlier-than-anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve," said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion and Jewellers Association and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures.
However, upside in gold could be capped due to better-than-expected US job data in June to 150,000 jobs compared to the market expectation of 110,000 jobs. Market participants hoped that if US job data were weaker than expected, it could warrant an early rate cut from the Fed. However, the latest data has dampened hopes of a dovish Fed ahead.
By the end of July 3rd, the dollar had jumped to 97.3, as concerns over the health of the US labor market eased after the strong job data.
So, gold is likely to be impacted by the development on July 4.
Gold Price Outlook On July 4:
Going ahead, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities said, "Gold is expected to trade in a broader range of Rs 95,500 - Rs 98,500."
According to Trading Economics, June's jobs report showed that nearly 150,000 jobs were added to the US economy, well above expectations of 110,000, to push back against calls that a softening labor market warranted a Fed rate cut this month. In the meantime, fiscal uncertainty eased amid optimism that the House representatives overcame some roadblocks and were set to approve President Trump's tax and spending bill, set to maintain the aggressive budget deficit from the document approved by the Senate.
Also, Trading Economics added, in the meantime, markets also awaited updated on new trade deals by the Commerce Department ahead of July 9th's deadline for the reintroduction of Liberation Day tariffs. Tariffs on Vietnam were lowered to 20% from 46%, but reports indicated that negotiations with other major trading partners faced roadblocks.
Additionally, Kamboj said, while progress on trade agreements may offer some support to risk assets, any optimism could be tempered by growing concerns over the US budget deficit, especially if the "One Big Beautiful Bill" is passed.
Spot gold has factored the latest job data, by dropping to around $3,320 per ounce on Thursday. In the previous session, the international gold had recorded $3,365 levels.
MCX Gold, Silver Prices:
Meanwhile, MCX gold price, with August 2025 expiry, ended mildly down to Rs 96,779 per 10 grams on July 3rd. Also, MCX silver price, with September 2025 expiry, closed at Rs 1,08,200, down marginally.
Disclaimer: The recommendations made above are by market analysts and are not advised by either the author, nor Greynium Information Technologies. The author, nor the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision.
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