Gold prices in India are at record-high levels. So far in April month, 24K, 22K and 18K gold have surged by more than 5%. Whole MCX gold neared Rs 96,000 per 10-gram level. Year-to-date, gold rates in India surged by more than 23%. World Gold Council predicts the gaining momentum to continue in yellow metal due to global uncertainties, financial market volatility and wedding seasons.
On Sunday, 24K gold price stood at Rs 97,580 per 10 grams, while 22K and 18K gold prices were at Rs 89,450 and Rs 73,190 per 10 grams respectively. These are new peak levels for gold.
Meanwhile, MCX gold price with June 2025 expiry, ended at Rs 95239 per 10 grams, down by 0.44% on April 17th, after hitting a new all-time high of Rs 95935 per 10 grams on that same day.
The domestic gold prices climbed, tracking back-to-back record breaking rally in international prices with spot gold skyrocketing to above $3,330 per ounce this week. However, investors booked profits on April 17th after yet another record rally. But demand for safe haven continues!
Data from the World Gold Council revealed that the gold price rally builds and exceeds key levels, with domestic price gains of 23% y-t-d.
WGC's note highlighted that so far in 2025, the LBMA gold price PM in USD has climbed by 24%, with over 14% of this increase occurring since March. The Indian domestic spot gold prices have mirrored this trend, rising 23% y-t-d.
However, WGC pointed out that gold price in India traded at a discount compared to international prices, due to subdued jewellery demand amid elevated prices. While domestic prices briefly moved into a slight premium in early April, the average discount has widened significantly - from US$12/oz in mid-March to over US$30/oz on 11 April.
WGC said, "Gold's steep climb and ongoing volatility are keeping many consumers on the sidelines, with demand for jewellery continuing to be limited to need based purchases, particularly for weddings. There has been a noticeable shift in consumer behaviour in response to soaring prices, with more buyers opting to trade in old jewellery for new: anecdotal reports suggest that 40-45% of purchases now involve some form of exchange."
While festive buying has continued, it remains modest and localised, often tied to specific regions and communities. Adding WGC said, "The trend of festival and wedding related purchases is likely to persist, supported by the safe-haven appeal of gold."
But wedding and festival seasons may not offset the drop in discretionary purchases.
Nonetheless, earnings of top jewellers is expected strong in Q4FY25.
WGC said, "Earnings reports from leading jewellery retailers for January-March quarter point to a strong performance, with average revenue growth up 25-35% y/y. This was largely fuelled by wedding related demand, festive buying, and a noticeable consumer shift toward gold - both as an adornment and a store of value."
Furthermore, in March 2025, gold ETFs recorded net outflows of INR0.8bn (~US$8.9mn), making it the first monthly outflow since April 2024.
As per WGC, despite these outflows, cumulative assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs rose to Rs 589 billion ($6.8 billion), up 6% m/m and 89% y/y thanks to the gold price increase. Gold ETFs now account for 0.9% of total mutual fund AUM, up from 0.6% a year ago.
Apart from this, gold's role in RBI's reserves also strengthens. WGC highlighted that RBI's total gold holdings to 879.6t, or 11.7% of its total foreign exchange reserves - is the highest level both in quantum and share.
"This recent pattern in gold purchases may suggest a more measured approach from the RBI, although it underscores gold's rising strategic importance in India's reserves management," WGC added.
Notably, despite record high prices, gold imports rebounded sharply in March after two consecutive months of decline, WGC noted.
Commerce Ministry's data revealed that imports climbed to US$4.4bn - nearly double the previous month's figure and significantly higher than the US$1.53bn recorded a year earlier. While still below the average monthly imports of US$7.3bn set between August and December 2024, The latest data from the Ministry of Commerce has revised gold imports for 2024 - from 724t to 812t - mainly due to revisions in import figures for the period from July to October, WGC reported.
Looking ahead, WGC said, Seasonal and wedding related purchases may support gold demand this month and next. Investor interest is likely to strengthen as gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and portfolio diversifier heightens amid global economic uncertainties and financial market volatility."
Disclaimer: The write-up is just for information purposes, and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. We have not done fundamental or technical analysis and have no opinion on article mentioned. Neither, the author nor Greynium Information Technologies should be held liable for any losses. Please consult a professional advisor.
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