Global Spotlight on SCO Summit 2025: Leaders to Watch and Big Issues on the Table Amid Trump’s Trade Moves

This year's SCO summit is scheduled from August 31 to September 1 in Tianjin, China. The event will host over 20 foreign leaders and heads of 10 international organisations. Attendees include India's Modi, Russia's Vladimir Putin, Iran's Masoud Pezeshkian, Pakistan's Shehbaz Sharif, and Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko. Other notable leaders are Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Myanmar's Min Aung Hlaing.

In July 2024, China's President Xi Jinping addressed leaders from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and other nations in Astana, Kazakhstan. He quoted an ancient Chinese saying: "No mountain or ocean can distance people who have shared aspirations." At that time, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi skipped the summit due to a parliamentary session, highlighting tensions within the bloc. However, geopolitical dynamics have since shifted significantly.

SCO's Evolution and Significance

The SCO began as the "Shanghai Five" in 1996 with China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan to resolve border issues post-Cold War. It evolved into the SCO in 2001 with Uzbekistan joining. India and Pakistan became members in 2017, followed by Iran in 2023 and Belarus in 2024. The organisation now includes dialogue partners like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Despite its growth, the SCO struggles with a clear identity. Alejandro Reyes from the University of Hong Kong notes that while it started as a security bloc, its expanded mandate blurs lines with groups like BRICS. The latter focuses on geopolitics and trade for the Global South. Reyes highlights that both organisations aim to diversify multilateralism beyond US-led frameworks.

Current Geopolitical Context

This year's summit occurs amid global tensions: Russia's war in Ukraine, Israel's actions in Gaza, and Trump's trade wars. Manoj Kewalramani from Takshashila Institution suggests China or Russia might advocate for multipolarity as a solution. He believes the SCO still supports multilateralism despite perceived threats from US policies.

Reyes emphasises the symbolic nature of this summit with China hosting during strained US relations worldwide. He suggests Xi sees an opportunity to position China as a global power by fostering international friendships. Following the summit, Beijing will host a military parade on September 3 to mark World War II's end in Asia.

Internal Divisions Within SCO

The SCO often struggles to reach consensus on major issues like Russia's war in Ukraine. While most members align with Russia, India maintains balanced ties with Ukraine while importing Russian oil. Ukraine recently urged SCO members to denounce Russia's aggression at this year's summit.

India also faces friction with Pakistan over cross-border terrorism accusations. In July, India demanded condemnation of an attack it blamed on Pakistan; when refused by the SCO consensus model, India declined to sign a joint statement at a defence ministers' meeting.

Implications for the United States

The US is closely monitoring this summit amid its tariffs on Indian goods and upcoming Quad Summit hosted by India later this year. Trump has criticised Global South organisations like BRICS as "anti-American." Analysts expect Washington will watch Modi's interactions with Xi closely during their meeting scheduled for Monday.

Kewalramani warns against assuming Indo-US relations are broken despite tariff tensions; both nations share strong ties across various sectors. He believes Washington will observe interactions among key players like India-China-Pakistan-Iran-Russia-China at this year's SCO Summit for insights into geopolitical dynamics.