Exclusive: Market Betting On Modi to Win Election 2024, Investors Say India Will Grow Better With BJP-Led Govt

In run up to the election next year, investors across India say that the current ruling party will be the best for India's economic growth.

Investors sentiment, specially in the stock market, remained overly optimistic after the G20 Summit in New Delhi and the euphoria was clearly visible as the benchmark Nifty 50 riding on the bulls touched a new lifetime high on Monday and breached over psychological 20,000 mark.

The G20 Presidency showcased India to the world as an inclusive nation with a strong growth focus. Importantly, it brings to light the country's unique ability to take other smaller nations along with clear direction on the road ahead.

The stock market of the fastest growing country in the world has risen nearly 12 percent in the past year and market participants are overall widely expecting the current Government's reign to continue for the next 5 years.

"I believe the BJP is a strong choice for India's economic growth in the 2024 election. They've demonstrated their ability to simplify taxes with the GST, which has made business smoother. Their focus on self-reliance through Aatmanirbhar Bharat has boosted local industries and enhanced India's global standing," says Suman Bannerjee, CIO at Hedonova, US-based Hedge fund.

" These policies, along with initiatives like Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana and PM-Kisan Yojana, have played a significant role in stabilizing and advancing our economy in challenging times."

Election 2024, Indian Economy and the Stock Market

One of the biggest investment banks in the world, Morgan Stanley said the domestic stock market has historically approached elections with optimism and that it sees a familiar pattern this time around, with the market pricing in a result that favours continuity in the government with a majority.

Morgan Stanley expects the market to rise 10 per cent by May 2024 and sees a potential for the market to swing in a wide range, depending on the outcome.

The voting in the world's biggest democratic election will likely commence in April 2024, with counting and the release of results likely on a single day in late May. This, Morgan Stanley said, assumes that the election dates are not advanced, which is a possibility. Advancing the election date could concentrate the market move into a shorter period, it said.

"While most advanced economies are facing an economic slowdown and high inflation, the Indian economy is acknowledged as the fastest-growing large economy due to stable political environment and forward-looking decision-making," says Swapnil Shah, Director-Research at StoxBox.

"With the seeds of a structural economic change being sown in the last few years, we believe that the current government has all the right ingredients to steer the economy towards a $5 trillion GDP in the next few years, further helped by a splintered opposition."

India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the near term and the country's policy may tilt towards even faster economic expansion post general elections in 2024, Barclays India said in a report.

"While 6 percent growth would raise India's global relevance, targeting 8 percent (growth) could see it overtake China as the biggest contributor to global growth," it said in the report title 'India: A breakout moment'.

The ten-year reign of the Bharatiya Janata Party has been a period of transformative changes in various sectors of India. While the efficiencies of certain schemes have been questioned, the intent and large-scale impact is undeniable, say investors.

Utkarsh Sinha managing director Bexley advisors a boutique investment bank firm said "India has got a strong secular growth trend that is projected well into the future: we have a demographic boom that is likely to continue for a while, a competitive advantage for FII and FDI flows, and a strong improvement in infrastructure across the board. The next government must ensure it doesn't rock the boat in any significant direction on infrastructure and foreign capital flows."

Innovative schemes like 'Make In India', 'Digital India', 'Swachh Bharat Abhiyan', and 'Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana', have sought to enhance India's manufacturing sector, digitize its economy, boost cleanliness, and uplift the economically weaker sections of society, respectively.

However, BJP's reign has had its share of controversies and criticisms, which are integral to the democratic nature of the country. Its tenure has experienced waves of public dissent, debate, and criticism on various fronts.

However, the overarching narrative highlights the party's endeavor towards scripting a new chapter in the book of India's growth and progress.

"In evaluating which government is conducive for India's economy, the resounding success of Modi's policies and initiatives leaves no room for doubt. His tenure has not only transformed economic dynamics but has set India on a trajectory towards unprecedented prosperity," says Venkataramana Pamarty, an International Corporate Lawyer and Business Strategist based in New Delhi India.

The BJP-led government's digital revolution has transformed financial transactions and services. The initiation of the 'Digital India' campaign has resulted in an increase in digital literacy, reinforcing India's position in the global digital economy.