Diwali 2025 Stock Picks: 5 Stocks That Could Explode Up to 40% Before Diwali 2026

As Diwali 2025 approaches, the stock market looks to be entering a significant accumulation phase, allowing investors a wonderful opportunity to position themselves for the next major spike. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, has suggested five Diwali stock picks for 2025 that investors can think about buying before to muhurat trading in 2025 in order to receive up to 40% potential upside till next Diwali, ensuring an attractive Samvat 2082.

Nifty Prediction

"Nifty has been trading in a sideways range after witnessing a strong bounce from its demand zone. This ongoing consolidation phase can be seen as a healthy pause within the broader uptrend and may offer a strategic buying opportunity for investors. The chart structure indicates that the market is stabilizing, creating a favorable environment for long-term investors," said Sumeet Bagadia.

"The Cup and Handle formation observed on the weekly timeframe further strengthens the bullish setup. The lower band of this sideways range aligns closely with the short-term 20-day EMA, providing additional technical support in the 24,000-23,800 zone. A rebound from these levels could mark the beginning of a renewed upward move," he added.

For investors with a long-term horizon, the current consolidation phase presents a golden opportunity to accumulate quality stocks at attractive valuations. Gradual or partial accumulation during this phase could help build a strong portfolio foundation ahead of the next market uptrend.

"If Nifty successfully holds above its support zone and manages to give a sustainable breakout move, it could resume its upward trend, with broader market participation likely to follow. Stocks selected during this consolidation phase are expected to outperform in the coming months as sentiment improves," stated Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking.

"Looking ahead, Nifty is expected to target 26,500 and 28,000 by Diwali 2026, offering substantial upside potential. Investors positioning themselves during this consolidation may benefit from a robust market recovery as economic fundamentals remain supportive of growth. Building a resilient portfolio this Diwali could set the stage for significant long-term wealth creation," he further commented.

Bank Nifty Prediction

"Bank Nifty has recently witnessed a strong recovery and is currently trading at 56,520. The index successfully broke out of the 53,500-54,000 resistance zone and later retested this level, turning it into a solid support base before rebounding. This confirms a successful breakout retest, and a move above the recent swing high would further validate the bullish momentum. Moreover, Bank Nifty is trading above the 20-week, 50-week, and 200-week EMAs, indicating strong bullish undertones," stated Sumeet Bagadia.

"The Weekly RSI stands at 62.18, placing it in the neutral zone and suggesting some room for consolidation before the next major upward move. Despite this, the overall price structure remains positive, as Bank Nifty continues to form higher highs and higher lows on the weekly timeframe - a classic sign of a sustained uptrend," he noted.

According to Sumeet Bagadia, the index is expected to find strong support between 54,000-53,500, offering a favorable buying opportunity for long-term investors. Any correction toward this zone should be viewed as a healthy pullback, allowing the index to build momentum for the next leg of the rally. As long as Bank Nifty holds above this key support, the bullish outlook remains intact.

"Looking ahead, Bank Nifty has the potential to reach 60,000-62,500 levels by Diwali 2026, supported by strong fundamentals within the banking sector. A "buy on dips" strategy is recommended, as the index remains well-positioned for continued medium- to long-term growth," he further recommended.

Diwali Stock Picks 2025 By Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

Here are the 5 selected stock picks by Sumeet Bagadia for Diwali 2025.

Federal Bank

Buy FEDERALBNK @ 213 & Upto 207 for the Target of 245/255

Federal Bank has been displaying a strong base formation over the past several months, with price action respecting an upward-sloping trendline support, indicating steady accumulation at lower levels. After multiple attempts, the stock is once again approaching the upper resistance zone near 220, signaling a potential breakout setup.

Currently trading around 213, the stock has been consolidating within a broad range of 195-215, with each correction finding firm support along the rising trendline. The 20-day and 50-day EMA are acting as near-term support zones, while the medium-term structure remains intact reinforcing the underlying strength.

Momentum indicators are beginning to show encouraging signals - the RSI is steadily rising from mid-levels, hinting at renewed buying interest, while the MACD is close to turning positive, suggesting improving momentum.

A sustained move above 220 would confirm a breakout from the consolidation phase and likely trigger a fresh rally towards 245-255, which correspond to the next resistance cluster and Fibonacci projection levels.

On the downside, any dips towards 207-205 should be viewed as buying opportunities, supported by the higher lows and short-term moving averages. A close below support 195 would be the first sign of weakness, though the broader trend remains constructive.

Cipla

Buy CIPLA @ 1545 & Upto 1500 for the Target of 1770/1850

Cipla has shown notable signs of strength after consolidating within a defined range and forming a series of higher highs and higher lows from its recent support levels. Currently trading around Rs 1541, the stock is exhibiting a constructive setup on the weekly chart, characterized by the formation of an ascending triangle pattern, indicating potential for an imminent breakout on the upside.

The stock is facing immediate resistance near Rs 1580, and a decisive breakout above this zone could trigger further upward momentum, paving the way towards the Rs 1770-Rs 1850 target range in the medium to long term. On the downside, immediate support lies near Rs 1480, where consistent accumulation has been observed. Importantly, the stock is trading above all major EMAs (20, 50, and 200), reaffirming the underlying bullish sentiment and strength in the ongoing trend.

Momentum indicators further support this constructive outlook. The RSI, currently at 52.25, reflects stability at current levels and provides room for further upside, suggesting that bullish momentum is gradually building.Based on this technical structure, we recommend initiating a buy position in Cipla at the current market price of Rs 1541, and adding on dips towards Rs 1480.

On the downside, Rs 1410 would act as a strong support zone, and a breach below this level could temporarily challenge the positive setup, warranting a cautious approach.

BDL

Buy BDL @ 1485 & Upto 1440 for the Target of 1700/1785

BDL has shown encouraging signs of strength, maintaining a higher high and higher low formation on the weekly chart, which reflects a sustained positive trend structure. Currently trading around Rs 1485, the stock is seen consolidating near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and finding support within this zone - a setup that typically precedes an upside move following a healthy consolidation phase.

On the upside, the stock is facing immediate resistance near Rs 1560, which coincides with the 20day EMA. A decisive breakout above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum and open the path for a further rally in the near term.

Momentum indicators also support the potential for an upward move. The RSI, currently at 46.54, indicates that the stock is emerging from the oversold zone and showing scope for a breakout on the upside. Additionally, the stock continues to trade above its 200-day EMA, reinforcing the broader bullish bias and highlighting structural strength within the long-term trend.

Based on this technical structure, we recommend initiating a buy position in BDL at the current market price of Rs 1485, and adding on dips towards Rs 1440. On the downside, Rs 1380 would act as a strong support zone, and a breach below this level could temporarily challenge the positive setup, warranting a cautious approach.

Ashok Leyland

Buy ASHOKLEY @ 135 & Upto 131 for the Target of 151/158

The stock is currently displaying a strong bullish structure on the weekly chart, forming a classic Rounding Bottom pattern, a reliable indicator of a gradual shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. After a phase of consolidation and accumulation near its lower levels, the stock has witnessed a steady recovery, supported by consistent volumes.

This pattern reflects renewed investor confidence and hints at the beginning of a sustained uptrend. The current price action around Rs 135, supported by consistent volume, reflects strong buying interest.

Technically, the stock remains robust as it is trading well above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages- a key indicator of sustained upside momentum. Immediate resistance is seen around Rs 140 mark, which aligns with a trend hurdle.

A decisive breakout and close above this level could serve as a strong bullish trigger, potentially opening up further upside target towards Rs 151 and Rs 158 in the medium to long term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 60.44, which is hovering in the positive zone, favouring the bulls. The rising RSI trend adds confidence to the strength of this rally, suggesting buyers continue to dominate.

Given the bullish chart structure and supportive technical indicators, investors may consider initiating long positions at the current market price of Rs 135. Dips towards Rs 131 can be used as buying opportunities to accumulate further. On the downside, a strong support lies at Rs 126; a breach below this level could act as a short-term risk to the rally.

However, as long as the stock sustains above this zone, the broader bias remains positive. This setup offers a favorable risk/reward scenario for positional traders looking to capitalize on a breakout-driven momentum rally.

SAIL

Buy SAIL @ 129 & Upto 125 for the Target of 147/153

SAIL is exhibiting a strong bullish setup on the weekly chart, forming a classic Cup and Handle pattern, a well-known bullish continuation formation that typically signals accumulation and trend resumption.

Following a steady recovery from lower levels, the stock has built a solid technical base and now appears poised for a decisive breakout. A sustained close above the Rs 138 level, supported by rising volumes, could act as a strong trigger for the next leg of the rally.

Currently trading near Rs 129, the price action is supported by firm volumes and a consistent pattern of higher lows, reflecting growing buying interest. Technically, the stock remains robust as it continues to trade comfortably above its 20-week, 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week EMAs, all of which are trending upward-reaffirming the underlying bullish momentum. The immediate resistance is placed at Rs 138, and a breakout above this level could open the way for further upside targets towards Rs 147 and Rs 153 in the medium term.

Momentum indicators also support this positive bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 52.39 on the weekly timeframe-slightly tilted down but still in a constructive zone- indicating that any dips are likely to attract fresh buying interest as the broader trend remains positive.

Given the chart structure and supportive technical indicators, investors may consider initiating long positions near Rs 129, while dips towards Rs 125 can be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate further. Positional support is placed at Rs 116; a breach below this level could pose a short-term risk to the rally.

However, as long as the stock sustains above Rs 116, the broader bias is expected to remain positive. 14th October 2025 Overall, the setup offers a favorable risk-reward opportunity for positional traders looking to capitalize on a potential breakout-driven rally.

Disclaimer

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