What The New US Tax Rule On NRI Remittances Means For Global Wealth Planning?

The newly proposed US tax law, expected to take effect from January 1, 2026, introduces a 3.5% tax on any remittances made by non-US citizens, including green card holders and those on work visas, when transferring money outside the US. If enacted, this regulation could significantly disrupt global liquidity flows and reshape the contours of global wealth planning.

Immediate Implications:

- Global Liquidity Impact: The United States has long been a major source of outbound remittances. A flat 3.5% tax on such outflows will act as a deterrent for international transfers.

As per Sachin Jain, Managing Partner, Scripbox, this could lead to a noticeable dip in the liquidity moving out of the US to other parts of the world, especially to emerging economies like India, which rely heavily on NRI inflows for multiple sectors.

- Effect on Indian NRIs and Local Economy: With approximately 3 million Indians residing in the US, many of whom regularly send money back home to support families or invest in Indian real estate and NRI deposit schemes, this tax poses a serious concern. These remittances fuel household incomes, fund education, and support sectors such as real estate, which thrives on foreign inflows.

Sachin Jain said a drop in this flow could strain NRI deposit growth and slow the momentum in real estate investments, especially in cities like Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Hyderabad, where NRI buyers have a strong presence.

- ESOP and Investment Repatriation Hit: A considerable portion of wealth repatriation happens via ESOPs (Employee Stock Ownership Plans) and equity-related investments. With this new tax, individuals may be forced to rethink repatriation strategies, potentially stalling or restructuring asset allocation models.

- Household Strain and Inflationary Pressure: For families dependent on money sent by relatives in the US, the new rule is effectively an "inflation tax". Since basic needs and obligations don't change with tax policies, NRIs will have to bear this additional cost, raising their outflows without a corresponding increase in value received.

Long-Term Consequences:

- Reallocation of Wealth and Investment Strategies: For NRIs, the change means rethinking global asset allocation. With US treasury yields having remained flat or negative over the last decade, and equity markets offering concentrated gains in only select sectors, US-based investors might find themselves in a bind-caught between higher taxes on outbound flows and limited growth in safer domestic assets.

- Challenging the Dominance of the US Dollar and US Market: This move may signal the beginning of increased capital controls, undermining the perception of the US as a frictionless base for global investing.

As other countries also become more cautious in response, this could alter the future viability of the US dollar and US equities as global investment anchors, Sachin Jain stated.

- Dual Pressure on Sending and Receiving Ends: While NRIs will face reduced net remittances due to the tax, the countries receiving funds, especially those with large diasporas like India, will also feel the pinch in sectors that are dependent on foreign capital inflows. The cost of maintaining family obligations will rise, while recipients see reduced funds available for spending, investing, or saving.

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