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US-Venezuela Conflict Jolts Crude Prices; India’s Energy Security Seen Stable
The US led strike against Venezuela and Maduro's arrest have unsettled global oil markets, but India's trade exposure remains small. Imports from Venezuela declined sharply under sanctions, while potential gains may arise if sanctions open or oil blocks resume production. Overall, India's energy security appears insulated from direct effects.
Airstrikes ordered by US President Donald Trump on Venezuela and the arrest of Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges have unsettled oil markets worldwide. Venezuela holds the planet’s largest crude reserves, yet early assessments suggest India’s economy, including energy security, stays largely shielded from this phase of the US-Venezuela conflict.
Economic think-tank Global Trade Research Initiative has assessed India’s exposure to this crisis as limited. "India faces negligible impact, as trade with Venezuela has collapsed under sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3 per cent in FY2025 and overall bilateral trade remaining marginal," GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava told PTI. Current data supports this cautious reading.
US-Venezuela conflict and latest India-Venezuela trade figures
Recent trade numbers underline how much the India-Venezuela link has shrunk under US sanctions. India’s total imports from Venezuela in FY2025 stood at $364.5 million, of which $255.3 million was crude oil. That crude bill is 81.3% lower than the $1.4 billion India paid for Venezuelan crude in fiscal year 2024.
On the export side, India now sells relatively little to Venezuela. Overall exports reached only $95.3 million in FY2025, with pharmaceutical products contributing $41.4 million. For an economy of India’s size, such figures are minor. This reduced scale explains why the direct trade fallout from the US-Venezuela conflict appears limited for India.
Two decades ago, the picture looked very different. During the 2000s and 2010s, Venezuela was a key crude supplier to India, shipping more than 400,000 barrels every day at the peak. That flow collapsed after Washington imposed sanctions in 2019, as Indian refiners cut purchases and businesses pulled back to avoid exposure to secondary US penalties.
Venezuela still matters for global energy balances because it holds about 18% of the world’s oil reserves. That share exceeds Saudi Arabia’s roughly 16%, Russia’s 5-6%, and the United States at around 4%. Any disruption or restructuring in such a large resource base can move prices, even if India’s direct trade is now modest.
US-Venezuela conflict and potential gains for Indian oil investments
Industry sources and analysts consulted by PTI suggest Indian firms could even benefit if the US tightens control over Venezuelan oil operations. A managed reopening could free up around $1 billion in overdue payments to Indian entities. It might also restart output at Venezuelan blocks where Indian companies already hold equity stakes.
ONGC Videsh Ltd, the overseas arm of ONGC, owns 40% of the San Cristobal oilfield in eastern Venezuela. US sanctions have cut access to essential technology, specialist services, and equipment there. As a result, otherwise viable reserves remain stranded, and India has been unable to fully use the asset or influence operating decisions.
Venezuela has not paid ONGC Videsh Ltd $536 million in dividends up to 2014. Officials say a similar sum is pending for later years because Venezuelan authorities did not allow audits, effectively freezing India’s claims. Any relaxation of sanctions oversight could unblock these dues and clarify accounts at the San Cristobal project.
Output at San Cristobal has dwindled to around 5,000-10,000 barrels per day, according to officials familiar with the field. Technical studies suggest the onshore block could yield 80,000-100,000 barrels per day with more wells and upgraded equipment. ONGC could move rigs from its fields in Gujarat, as the Venezuelan site needs similar rigs that ONGC already operates.
GTRI stresses that geographical distance and already tight sanctions further soften the blow for India. "Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India's economy or energy security," PTI quoted Srivastava. For now, global price swings remain the main channel of concern.
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