The US stock market is going to be closed on Friday, July 4, due to the celebration of Independence Day in the country. It is a federal and national holiday for the U.S. In the previous session, Wall Street closed on a higher note after stronger-than-expected job data. Although the US market will be closed, the dollar traded in the forex market is at over a 3-year low.
US Market Holiday:
There are two main exchanges of Wall Street namely NYSE and Nasdaq. As per these exchanges holiday list, July 4th is trading holiday due to Independence Day.
July 4th Independence Day 2025:
Independence Day, known colloquially as the Fourth of July or July 4th, is a federal holiday in the United States which commemorates the ratification of the Declaration of Independence by the Second Continental Congress on July 4, 1776, establishing the United States of America, as per Wikipedia.
US Stock Market:
In the previous session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,828.53, up by 0.8%. While S&P 500 index closed at 6,279.35, higher by 0.83% after hitting a new all-time high of 6,284.65. The tech heavy index Nasdaq Composite also closed at 20,601.10, up by 1.02%, after hitting a new record of 20,624.51 on July 3rd.
Although DJIA did not touch its 52-week high mark compared to its counterparts, the index outperformed S&P 500 and Nasdaq in five sessions. In the past five sessions, DJIA has soared by over 3%. Whereas, S&P 500 and Nasdaq zoomed by 2% each.
According to Charles Schwab data, the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 closed at the highest levels since February.
US Stock Market Weekly Outlook:
Does that mean the US market is overbought? According to Schwab, YES! But, it also highlighted that bullish momentum tends to feed on itself, especially when markets are at fresh highs, aided by performance chasing and FOMO. However, stocks go down as well as up, and the mean version occurs at some point, so it's important for investors to not get lulled into complacency.
Schwab's weekly outlook report added, July seasonality favors the bulls, but next week markets could encounter a test. The 90-day tariff pause by the U.S. ends next Wednesday (July 9th), and assuming President Donald Trump stands by his statement that he will not extend this trade deadline, it seems likely that there will either be a slew of trade deals/frameworks, or some trade turmoil if there are disagreements.
Given the market's overbought status (more on this in the "Technical Take" section below) and the potential to encounter either some negative trade surprises or a "sell on the news" reaction, Nate Peterson, Director of Derivatives Analysis for the Schwab said, "I'm in the cautious camp next week."
He added, "Therefore, my forecast for next week is "Slightly Bearish." The market has been so bullish and resilient recently that I don't expect a significant pullback, hence the "slightly" bearish outlook. What could challenge next week's outlook? If there are trade deals and they are better than expected, this could potentially fuel another leg higher in stocks."
Key Triggering Factors For Wall Street Next Week:
The US-China truce of 90-days on tariffs deal will end on July 9th. Also, US will announce its consumer Credit report on July 8, followed by data on EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, and Wholesale Inventories on July 9th. Further, on July 11, treasury budget will be eyed.
Key Earnings To Watch Out:
Companies like Immersion Corp. (IMMR), Kura Sushi USA Inc. (KRUS), Penguin Solutions (PENG), Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), and Quantum Corp. (QMCO) will announce their quarterly results on July 8th. While companies like AZZ Inc. (AZZ), and Bassett Furniture Industries Inc. (BSET) earnings is scheduled on July 9th.
Further, companies like Delta Airlines Inc. (DAL), Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG), Simply Good Foods Co. (SMPL), Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST), PriceSmart Inc. (PSMT), and WD-40 Co. (WDFC) earnings will be in focus on July 10.
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