Stock Market Weekly Forecast: Sensex, Nifty May Rally; Big Triggers Ahead with H-1B Fee Shock, GST 2.0 Rollout

As Indian markets step into the final week of September, investors remain cautiously optimistic. While benchmark indices like the Sensex and Nifty have displayed strength in recent sessions, the overall market sentiment stays mixed amid global uncertainties and domestic policy developments.

At the forefront is the recent shift in U.S. immigration policy, particularly the steep hike in H‑1B visa fees, which has raised concerns for India's export-driven IT sector. Meanwhile, back home, the rollout of GST 2.0 reforms adds another layer of complexity, potentially impacting consumption patterns and sectoral dynamics.

Stock Market Weekly Forecast for September 22, 2025 To September 26, 2025

"Indian Equities were in the green this week following FED rate cut, easing of tariff concerns and optimism around demand conditions following GST cuts. Large-cap / mid-cap / small-cap rose by 1.1% / 1.5% / 2.1% respectively. Major indices are closing the gaps with all-time-highs. The mid-cap index is less than 3% away from all-time-highs," said Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner, Equity and PMS, AlphaaMoney.

H‑1B Visa Fee Hike: A Key Risk Trigger for Indian IT Stocks This Week

While technicals suggest a positive undertone, a number of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are likely to influence investor sentiment. One of the major developments to watch this week is U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a new $100,000 fee for each H-1B visa application, effective September 21.

This move could directly impact India's IT services sector, as many companies rely heavily on skilled talent placement in the United States. Stocks in this space including Infosys, TCS and Wipro may see pressure or increased volatility as markets digest the policy shift.

GST 2.0 Rollout From September 22, 2025

Another important factor is the implementation of GST 2.0, the next phase of tax reform, which kicks in from September 22. While this change may not affect broader indices directly, it could have implications for sector-specific stocks, especially in FMCG, auto and beverages.

India-US trade talks: Union Minister Piyush Goyal's Visit To US

Adding to the global cues, India-US trade talks are set to advance, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal leading a delegation to Washington D.C. beginning Monday. The outcome of these talks could influence export-oriented sectors and foreign investment sentiment. Optimism around trade deals often boosts confidence in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, defense and manufacturing.

Institutional Buying: FII and DII Inflows Support Market Momentum

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also played a supportive role last week. On Friday, September 19, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 390 crore, while DIIs purchased Rs 2,105 crore worth of equities, as per provisional exchange data.

This continued buying by institutions has been one of the key factors propping up market indices in recent sessions and will remain crucial in maintaining upward momentum.

Sensex, Nifty Prediction This Week

The Nifty 50 index continued its bullish momentum last week, gaining 213 points and forming a bullish candle for the third straight week. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a classic "cup and handle" pattern, a bullish formation that indicates the possibility of further upside as per Mr. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director of Choice Brokerage.

On the daily chart, a "double-bottom" pattern has also emerged, signaling that the index has found strong support around the 25,000 level. Nifty closed the week at 25,327 and remained firmly above all key moving averages-the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs)-a strong technical confirmation of ongoing market strength.

"As long as the index remains above these moving averages, market sentiment is expected to stay constructive.On the upside, immediate resistance levels are seen at 25,500, followed by 25,600 and 25,850. On the downside, support is placed at 25,150 and then at 25,000, with a deeper breakdown below 24,900 likely to trigger additional downside pressure," noted Mr. Bagadia.

Given the current technical setup, a "buy-on-dips" strategy appears favorable. However, traders are advised to maintain strict stop-losses due to underlying market volatility.

Bank Nifty Outlook This Week For 22 to 26 September 2025

The Bank Nifty index also ended the previous week on a positive note, closing at 55,458.85 after recovering nearly 649 points. This marks the third consecutive week of gains and shows that the banking sector continues to offer support to the broader market.

"Technical indicators also point to a bullish bias. The RSI, currently around 55.32 and trending upward, indicates improving momentum. Additionally, Bank Nifty is trading above both the 20-day and 200-day EMAs and is approaching its 50-day EMA. A decisive close above the 50-day EMA would further reinforce the bullish outlook," the expert noted.

For the coming week, Bank Nifty's resistance is placed at 55,750, with further upside targets at 56,000 and 56,500. Support is seen at 55,000 and below that at 54,830 and 54,500. A close above the 56,000 mark could potentially trigger aggressive buying, while a fall below 55,000 may lead to renewed selling pressure.

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