Stock Market Weekly Forecast: Nifty Targets 25,400, Sensex Eyes New Highs; Q2 Results, Fed Minutes in Focus

This week (October 6-10, 2025), the stock market is expected to maintain its upward momentum, driven by strong performance in metals and PSU banks, along with positive technical signals on Nifty and Bank Nifty. Key factors to watch include Q2 earnings, major IPO launches, and global developments like the US Fed minutes. As long as Nifty stays above 24,747, the index could move toward the 25,100-25,400 zone.

Stock Market Outlook This Week: Sensex, Nifty Weekly Forecast From October 6 to October 10, 2025

Benchmark indices closed a truncated trading week on a positive note, extending gains for a second straight session on Friday. The Sensex added 224 points (0.28%) to settle at 81,207, while Nifty climbed 58 points (0.23%), ending at 24,894. Market breadth remained healthy, with more advancing stocks than decliners.

Stocks in Focus This Week: Sector-wise Stocks Performance Trends

Among sectors, metal stocks led the charge, with the Nifty Metal index gaining nearly 4% during the week. The rally in metals was fueled by several tailwinds, including weakness in the U.S. dollar, talk of the EU raising steel import tariffs to as much as 50%, improving demand expectations, and China's curbs on steel output. PSU banks also contributed strongly, with the Nifty PSU Bank index rising over 4% for the week.

On Friday, metals, PSU banks, and consumer durables drove gains, each advancing between 1% and 2%. Meanwhile, auto, realty, and healthcare sectors slipped marginally, declining 0.1% to 0.2%. The broader market also participated in the upswing: the Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.83%, and the Nifty Small Cap 100 gained 0.69%.

Nifty Weekly Prediction : Technical Outlook (Oct 6-10)

"On the daily chart index has formed a bull candle with a higher high and higher low signaling extension of the pullback," notes analysts at Bajaj Broking who see the recent rebound continuing into the coming week. On the weekly chart, the formation of a bullish candle with a small lower shadow suggests "buying demand from near the critical support zone around 24,400-24,600."

If momentum persists, the next upside target is seen at 25,100, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the recent decline. However, resistance is expected around 25,400, aligning with trendline resistance drawn through the highs of June and September 2025. On the downside, the Friday low of 24,747 will act as the immediate support; as long as the index stays above that level, the current pullback may remain intact.

Key support remains in the 24,400 to 24,600 band, which aligns with the 200-day EMA, last week's lows, and prior major lows accumulated over recent months.

Bank Nifty Stays Bullish

The Bank Nifty has displayed notable strength over the past few sessions, forming a bullish daily candle with higher highs and higher lows-an indication that the positive momentum may continue. The index is trading above both its 21-day and 50-day EMAs, currently pegged around 54,940 and 55,120, respectively, which supports a bullish bias. Support levels have been revised upward to 54,800 and 55,000, offering a sturdy base for further gains.

As per Bajaj Broking, on the upside, resistance is expected at 56,150, which coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the full decline (from 57,628 down to 53,561) and prior high in August 2025. Analysts suggest a buy-on-dips strategy for Bank Nifty in the near to medium term.

Top Triggers To Drive Stock Market Sentiment for the Week Ahead

Q2 Earnings: The September quarter results season kicks off in India next week. All eyes will be on Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), which is set to announce on October 9. The IT sector is expected to face headwinds after a subdued Q1 due to tariff concerns.

IPO Activity: The primary market is gearing up for a wave of new issues. High profile IPOs like Tata Capital and LG Electronics are slated to open. In all, around five IPOs (four mainboard and one SME) could raise up to Rs 28,500 crore.

U.S. Monetary Policy & FOMC Minutes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are due on October 8, which could offer fresh cues on the U.S. rate outlook.

U.S. Government Shutdown Risks: The possibility of another U.S. government shutdown looms large, adding to global market uncertainty and volatility.

Mr. Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner of Equity & PMS at AlphaaMoney, summed up the week, "Indian equities rebounded in a holiday‑shortened week, with the Large-cap Index up 1.1% and small and mid-caps outperforming by 90 bps. IPO activity is set for a record October, while FII long positions dropped to 6% at the start of the new F&O series. India's 10-year bond yield stayed flat at 6.52% after inching to 6.56% midweek after the H2 FY26 borrowing calendar, which shifted 5% of long‑bond supply to shorter tenures."

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