Stock Market Outlook Today: Sensex, Nifty to Trade Cautious Amid Rupee Weakness, FII Outflows & Other Factors

Indian stock markets are expected to open on a cautious note on September 24, 2025, as investors continue to monitor currency volatility, global policy cues and foreign fund outflows. While broader sentiment remains slightly risk-averse, selective buying in banking, auto and metal stocks could lend intraday support, especially amid festive demand optimism and strong core sector data.

However, weakness in FMCG and IT, along with pressure on midcap and smallcap indices, may cap upside momentum in the short term.

Stock Market Outlook For September 24, 2025

On Tuesday, the Indian benchmark indices displayed high volatility and ended slightly lower, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Concerns over currency depreciation, continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows and global policy uncertainties kept the market on edge. Despite this, selective buying in key sectors such as banking, metals, and autos provided some support to the indices.

The Nifty opened weak, falling to an intraday low near 25,084, before strong buying at lower levels helped it recover to a high of 25,261. However, the index gave up some gains to close marginally down at 25,169.50, down 33 points or 0.13%. The Indian rupee hit a fresh record low against the US dollar, settling at 88.75, adding to the cautious tone.

Stocks in Focus: Sector-wise Stocks Performance Trend

Sector-wise, the market saw a mixed performance. The Nifty Metal index gained 1%, led by strong steel production numbers, while banking stocks also contributed positively with Nifty Bank up 0.4% and PSU Bank rising 1.1%.

The auto sector continued to benefit from the festive demand pickup, with Nifty Auto advancing 0.62%, supported by robust bookings reported for major players like Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, and Hyundai India.On the other hand, defensive sectors like FMCG, IT, and Media declined by 1.3%, 0.7%, and 0.66%, respectively. Broader markets underperformed with Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap indices slipping by 0.35% and 0.53%.

Nifty Prediction Today: Check Technical Outlook By Experts

According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty has formed a second consecutive high wave candle with lower highs and lower lows, indicating a consolidation phase with a corrective bias after a sharp 1,000-point rally in the past three weeks. The index is expected to continue trading in a range between 25,000 and 25,500 over the next few sessions.

Immediate support is seen around 25,100-24,900, aligning with the convergence of the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA). Despite the near-term consolidation, the overall positive bias remains intact, presenting tactical buying opportunities within the broader uptrend. Resistance is expected in the 25,500-25,600 zone, which will be crucial for determining the next leg of the rally.

Bank Nifty Outlook Today

The Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle, showing buying interest near the 50-day EMA. The index is likely to consolidate in the 54,700-56,000 range, digesting the overbought conditions created by a strong 2,300-point rally in the last three weeks. Support lies at 54,700-54,900, coinciding with last week's lows and the 20-day EMA, while a more significant support zone is at 54,000, marking a key retracement level.

The positive outlook is maintained, and this consolidation phase is seen as an opportunity for fresh buying. A decisive breakout above 56,000 could propel Bank Nifty towards the 57,000 level in the near term as per Bajaj Broking.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, highlighted that despite a marginal fall in Nifty, the indices staged a strong recovery from the day's lows, supported by buying in auto, metal, and banking sectors. The festive demand momentum, especially during Navratri, is boosting auto sales and investor confidence. However, the broader market weakness in Midcaps and Smallcaps indicates cautious risk-taking.

On the macroeconomic front, India's Composite PMI eased slightly from 63.2 in August to 61.9 in September, signaling a modest slowdown but continued expansion. Core sector output grew impressively by 6.3% in August, the highest in 13 months, buoyed by robust steel and coal production. Internationally, India-US trade negotiations remain a focal point, with ongoing talks aimed at strengthening bilateral trade relations.

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