Stock Market Outlook Today: Sensex, Nifty Likely to Consolidate; Bank Nifty May Trade in 54,700–56,000 Range

On September 23, Indian equity markets are likely to trade in a cautious, consolidative mode after sharp losses on Monday. With the Nifty forming a high‑wave candle and seeing profit‑booking pressure, especially in IT stocks, trader focus will shift to key support levels around 25,100-24,900. External developments such as the trade negotiations in the U.S. and clarity on the H‑1B visa fee stance could be the catalysts that drive sharper moves.

Stock Market Outlook For September 23, 2025

Indian equity markets closed lower on Monday, weighed down by negative sentiment following the U.S. President Donald Trump's new H-1B visa fee rule. The Nifty50 index ended the day at 25,202, down 125 points or 0.5%, showing broad-based weakness across most sectors. The Sensex fell 466 points or 0.56%, closing at 82,160. Midcap and small-cap indices also slipped, with the Nifty Midcap100 down 0.7% and the Smallcap100 declining 1.2%.

IT Stocks Top Draggers

The biggest drag on the market was the IT sector, which tumbled nearly 3%, reacting sharply to the U.S. decision to raise the one-time H-1B visa fee to $100,000 (around Rs 88 lakh). This move rattled sentiment in the IT space, a sector that had recently shown signs of recovery. Pharma stocks were also under pressure, down 1.4%, while energy and metals saw modest gains of around 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively.

Despite the initial sell-off, IT stocks pared losses somewhat after clarifications on the visa fee rule. The GST rollout and sustained buying in Adani Group counters helped an intraday pullback, but overall market sentiment remained cautious.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, noted, "IT services are seeing slower growth for now as companies spend more on AI hardware, but demand is expected to pick up once technology stabilizes and adoption becomes wider." He further added, "After the recent run-up, equities are likely to consolidate, tracking developments on this front," referring to Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal's ongoing trade deal negotiations in the U.S.

Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today: What Should Traders Expect; Check Technical Outlook

The Nifty formed a high wave candle pattern on Monday, signaling profit booking for the second consecutive session. This technical pattern, with a lower high and lower low, suggests the market is consolidating after a sharp 1,000-point rally over the past three weeks. The daily stochastic oscillator has entered overbought territory, adding to the cautious mood among traders.

Analysts at the Bajaj Broking expect the Nifty to continue consolidating in the range of 25,500 to 25,000 in the near term. Immediate support is placed between 25,100 and 24,900, coinciding with the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) and a key Fibonacci retracement zone of the recent upward move from 24,405 to 25,448.

"We maintain a constructive view and believe the ongoing corrective pullback presents a tactical buying opportunity within the broader uptrend. On the upside, the index faces resistance at the 25,500-25,600 zone. A sustained breakout above this supply zone could trigger further upside in the coming weeks," stated Bajaj Broking report.

Bank Nifty Outlook for September 23, 2025: Tactical Buying on Dips

The Bank Nifty mirrored the broader market, forming a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low, signaling profit booking after a sharp 2,300-point rally over the past three weeks. The index is currently testing the 61.8% retracement level of its entire decline (from 57,628 to 53,561), which lies around the 56,000 mark.

Given the overbought momentum indicators, a consolidation phase is likely between 56,000 and 54,700. Immediate support is pegged at 54,700, aligned with last week's low and the 20-day EMA, while stronger support exists near 54,000, a key retracement level.

"We maintain a constructive view and believe the ongoing corrective pullback presents a tactical buying opportunity," said Bajaj Broking. On the upside, the Bank Nifty faces resistance near 56,000, and a breakout here could open the path toward 57,000 levels in the coming weeks.

Key Factors to Watch: Union Minister Piyush Goyal's US Visit

Investors will keep a close eye on developments from Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal's trade negotiations in the U.S., the progress on tariff discussions, and any further updates on the H-1B visa fee policy, which has already impacted market sentiment. Additionally, sectoral performance-especially in IT and pharma-will remain critical in shaping market direction.

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