Stock Market Outlook Today: Sensex, Nifty Predicted to Trade Flat to Negative Amid US-India Trade Uncertainty

The Indian stock market outlook on the last day of the month remains cautious amid lingering uncertainty around the US-India trade deal and continued weakness in IT and pharma sectors. Investors are closely watching the upcoming RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, with the central bank widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

Stock Market Outlook Today For September 30, 2025

Indian equity benchmarks closed flat on September 29 after a volatile and range-bound session, with the Nifty marking its seventh consecutive decline. The market started positively but was weighed down by persistent selling during intraday rallies, dragging the Nifty to close near the day's low.

Sensex Prediction Today: Sector-wise Stocks in Focus on Tuesday

At close, the Sensex slipped by 61.52 points (0.08%) to 80,364.94, while the Nifty lost 19.80 points (0.08%) to 24,634.90. Midcap indices gained modestly by 0.3%, whereas smallcaps edged down slightly. Sectoral performance was mixed, with oil & gas, PSU banks, energy, and realty gaining around 1% each, while media stocks fell nearly 1%.

Nifty Prediction Today: Check Technical Outlook By Experts

Technically, the Nifty shows signs of near-term weakness. "On the daily chart, Nifty has formed a significant bearish candle with an upper shadow, indicating that bulls failed to sustain the earlier rebound. This price action reflects selling pressure at higher levels and suggests a continuation of near-term weakness in the sessions ahead," according to Bajaj Broking Research.

The index is approaching a critical support zone in the 24,500-24,400 range, marked by previous swing lows and the 200-day moving average. This zone is expected to act as a strong demand area where short-term buyers may step in, potentially providing a base for stabilization.

On the upside, resistance lies in the 24,800-24,900 region, and a decisive breakout above this could signal a short-term bottom and a potential trend reversal targeting 25,100-25,200.

Bank Nifty Outlook Today For 30 September 2025

Bank Nifty's technical setup also reflects a cautious mood. It formed a high-wave candle and closed just above the previous day's low, indicating buyer interest near key support levels but overall indecision. Trading below its 21- and 50-day EMAs, the trend favors the downside until these moving averages are convincingly broken as per Bajaj Broking

Bajaj Broking noted, "Immediate support is at 54,080, followed by 53,800, near the 200-day EMA - a crucial demand zone. Resistance is at 54,850 and then 55,000; a sustained move above 55,000 would be necessary to confirm a short-term bullish reversal."

Motilal Oswal's Siddhartha Khemka said, "Indian markets opened positive on September 29 after six consecutive days of decline but witnessed selling pressure later to close flat, amidst mixed global cues and cautiousness ahead of RBI's MPC decision on October 1."

He added that while PSU Bank (+1.8%) and Oil & Gas (+1.4%) sectors led gains, broader markets showed mixed trends.

"Moody's has affirmed India's long-term issuer ratings at Baa3 with a stable outlook and projected GDP growth of 6.5% in FY26, keeping it the fastest-growing G20 economy," Khemka highlighted. Domestic institutional investors have been net buyers in September, while foreign investors have offloaded shares, reflecting divergent market flows.

With key global economic data such as China's manufacturing PMI, UK GDP, and US job openings due soon, markets are expected to consolidate amid ongoing global uncertainties. Overall, the technical and fundamental backdrop suggests a market in a corrective phase, with a critical support test imminent and a potential rebound contingent on overcoming short-term resistance.

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