Stock Market Outlook Today: Sensex and Nifty to Trade Cautiously; Support at 25,000, Resistance at 25,600

Indian equity markets are likely to start on a cautious note on Thursday amid weak global cues, persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) selling and ongoing concerns over U.S. trade policies and visa regulations. After four straight sessions of decline, the Nifty is expected to consolidate within a narrow range of 25,000-25,500, while the Sensex may remain under pressure as investors await fresh triggers.

Analysts believe the current pullback phase could offer a buying opportunity near key support levels, especially if broader sentiment stabilises.

Stock Market Outlook Today For 25 September 2025

Indian benchmark indices extended their losing streak to the fourth session on September 24, as profit booking and global headwinds weighed on sentiment. According to Bajaj Broking Research, the Nifty settled near 25,050, dragged by weaker IT counters, escalating H-1B fees and softening global macros that dampened risk appetite.

"Indian equity benchmarks closed on a subdued note ... with the Nifty settling near 25,050 on account of profit booking. Index is seen down for the 4th session in a row," the firm noted.

Stocks in Focus Today: Sector-wise Stocks Performance Trends

By market close, the Sensex fell 386.47 points (-0.47 %) to 81,715.63, while the Nifty declined 112.60 points (-0.45 %) to 25,056.90. All major sectors except FMCG witnessed broad-based profit booking, with auto, IT, media, metals, oil & gas, and realty down between 0.5 % and 2.5 %. The midcap index slipped nearly 1 %, and the small-cap index shed about 0.7 %, reflecting weak breadth.

Nifty Prediction Today: Market Analysts Believe Consolidation Ahead

Bajaj Broking expects the Nifty to continue its correction phase, citing the daily chart's bearish candle with a lower high and lower low as evidence of persistent profit-taking. "A pause in this corrective trend would only be signalled by the formation of a higher high and higher low on the daily chart," it added.

In its near‐term view, the brokerage projects that the Nifty will trade in a range between 25,000 and 25,500. Immediate support levels are pegged at 25,100-24,900, aligning with converging 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). On the upside, resistance lies in the 25,500-25,600 zone. Despite the pullback, Bajaj Broking maintains a positive overall bias and views the current decline as "a buying opportunity within the broader uptrend."

Bank Nifty Prediction Today: Range Consolidation to Continue

On the banking front, Bank Nifty also displayed a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low, indicating limited follow-through from the prior day's pullback. After an aggressive 2,300-point run in three weeks, the index appears to be unwinding overbought conditions.

Bajaj Broking expects Bank Nifty to consolidate in the 54,700-56,000 band in the near term. "Immediate support is placed at 25,100-24,900, aligning with the confluence of the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA). Despite the ongoing pullback, we maintain a positive overall bias and view the current decline as a buying opportunity within the broader uptrend. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 25,500-25,600 zone," as it mentioned.

Key Factors To Drive Share Market Sentiment Today; Know Motilal Oswal's View

From Motilal Oswal's perspective, the extended decline over four sessions reflects pressure from global factors and foreign outflows. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at the firm, observed that "market sentiments were weighed down by continued concerns over U.S. visa policy changes and persistent FII selling."

He noted that the weakness was broad-based, Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 fell by 1% and 0.7% respectively and realty was the top loser, sliding 2.5%. Among sectors, auto dropped 1.2%, while IT, banking and financials declined 0.6-1 %. Only FMCG managed to register modest gains, up 0.2 %.

Khemka also flagged INR hitting a record low of 88.8 against the dollar amid trade uncertainty and tariff pressures. At the same time, PSU banking showed relative strength after news that the government is considering raising foreign investment limits in public sector banks. On the institutional front, foreign investors were net sellers of approximately Rs 6,461 crore over the last two sessions, further dampening sentiment.

He cautioned that while festive demand and GST‑led structural reforms offer long-term support, currency weakness and global headwinds including uncertainty related to India-US trade deal are likely to keep the market range-bound in the near term.

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