Stock Market On July 16: What Is Impacting Sensex And Nifty On Wednesday? Key Factors Here

The Indian stock market opened on a cautious note, with the Sensex falling below the 82,500 mark and the Nifty 50 struggling to retain the 25,150 level. Traders are digesting US inflation data, which surged to the highest in five months in June 2025. Also, weak Q1 results so far have dragged the performance. At the time, auto stocks are top bears after Tesla entered the Indian automobile market. Metal stocks further contributed to the downside.

Sensex, Nifty:

Sensex opened at 82,534.66; however, it erased the 82,500 mark by hitting an intraday low of 82,412.15. Currently, the benchmark traded at 82,417.67, down by 153.24, or 0.19%.

Stocks like M&M, Eternal, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, and Tata Steel are top losers, falling by 1% to 1.5%. While Trent, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports, and HDFC Bank are top gainers, rising by 0.5% to 1%. However, of the total 30 scrips listed on the Sensex, 9 advanced and 21 declined.

Coming to Nifty 50, this benchmark opened at 25,196.60. However, following the counterparts, Nifty also slipped below its pivotal 25,150 mark to hit an intraday low of 25,128.45. At the time of writing, Nifty was down 64.75 points, or 0.26% to trade at 25,131.10.

Nifty Auto and Nifty Metal indexes plunged by nearly 1% each. Selling pressure was also seen in financial services and pharma stocks.

"Market sentiment remains mildly indecisive, following a cautious close in the previous session," said Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst - Research at Choice Equity Broking.

Furthermore, Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities who also expected a cautious trend in Sensex and Nifty, added, "traders digest sticky US inflation data and ongoing tariff threats, though the Q1 Corporate India earnings season beginning with Angel One, LTTS, and Tech Mahindra today could provide market clarity."

US inflation rate surged for the second consecutive month to 2.7% in June 2025, in line with market expectations. However, CPI also reached its highest level since February 2025. Investors are predicting that the tariff's impact on US CPI has started to unfold.

What Is Impacting the Market?

"The market has been oscillating in a narrow range during the last two months. A breakout above the upper band of the range, well beyond Nifty 25500, needs positive triggers. Such a trigger may come from an India-US trade deal with tariffs on India pegged at around 20 percent. If this happens, can it trigger a sustained rally in the market? Unlikely," said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

He also added, "A sustained rally in the market needs earnings support. There are no signs of strong earnings support and earnings growth visibility. Two big segments of the market - IT services and consumption, particularly FMCG - are struggling with tepid earnings. There are green shoots of earnings recovery in FMCG but IT services continue to struggle. This means earnings growth for FY26 will be around 10 percent only. This is the biggest challenge being faced by the market now. Therefore, investors can be stock- specific, focusing on stocks where growth prospects and earnings visibility are bright."

Indian Rupee Vs Dollar:

The local currency traded near its three-week low to 85.7 against US dollar, as sentiments between US-India trade policy heightened.

As per Trading Economics, India remains one of the few major US trade partners yet to receive a formal tariff notification. Adding to the rupee's pressure were strong dollar demand and signs of capital outflows from Indian equities. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures continued to ease.

"The rupee is expected to trade in a range of 85.55 to 86.25 in the near term," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Commodities Market:

MCX gold price surged by Rs 195 to trade at Rs 97,406 per 10 grams, at the time of writing, which was near its intraday high of Rs 97,406 per 10 grams.

Meanwhile, MCX silver price also climbed by Rs 314 to trade at Rs 1,11,800 per 1kg, also near its intraday high of Rs 1,11,820 per 1kg.

However, commodities like copper and aluminium traded under pressure at MCX. Both MCX copper and MCX silver dipped to trade around 882 and 248 levels.

According to Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities, elevated inflation dims the possibility of near-term rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, sparking broad-based selling in precious metals. The dollar index surged to a 3-week high, breaching the 98-mark and weighing further on bullion. However, rising global trade tensions may lend some support to prices at lower levels.

Crude Oil Prices:

Brent crude oil traded higher to around $69 per barrel levels, halting its two consecutive days losses. Kalantri said, "The U.S. EIA will release its weekly inventory data later today and will be directional for oil prices. We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile in today's session."

Global Market:

Majority of Asian shares traded higher with exceptions of Gift Nifty and KOSPI index. Japanese Nikkei 225 was up by 0.5%, followed by strong gains in Taiwan Weighted index by 1.2%. Hang Seng and Jakarta Composite gained marginally. South Korea's KOSPI is down by nearly 1%.

However, Gift Nifty is down in the range of 80-100 points currently but has touched an intraday low of 25,155.50. Sensex and Nifty are also in red, following Gift Nifty.

Overnight, European market closed in red. While Wall Street closed in mixed trend, with Dow Jones falling by nearly 1%. S&P 500 was down by 0.4% but Nasdaq Composite was up marginally.

Technical Outlook For Indian Stock Market:

The Nifty 50 witnessed a sharp rebound after retesting the crucial 25,000 support zone, signaling renewed bullish momentum. The index closed above 25,250 and is now hovering near the 20-day EMA, which could confirm a continuation of the uptrend if sustained. Additionally, the formation of a bullish "Morning Star" pattern near support adds weight to the positive outlook. If the momentum holds, the index could rally toward the resistance levels of 25,400, 25,600, and potentially 26,000. Traders holding long positions should maintain a strict stop-loss at 25,000 while aiming for these short-term upside targets, as per Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst - Research at Choice Equity Broking.

Meanwhile, Vaishali Parekh, Vice President - Technical Research, PL Capital said, "Sensex has witnessed a pullback to maintain above the 50 EMA zone of 81800 and would need to carry on with the positive move further ahead to restore some lost sentiment and regain strength. The index needs to move past the important levels of the 20 DMA level of 82900 decisively to establish conviction and thereafter, hope for further rise in the coming days."