Stock Market Weekly Outlook For 11 to 14 August: Nifty, Sensex Under Pressure; Will Markets Rebound This Week?

The Indian stock market has been on a downward trend for the past six weeks. On Friday, both the Nifty and Sensex indices fell by nearly 1%. Additionally, the BSE Midcap Index decreased by 1.3%, while the Small Cap Index saw a decline of around 2%. Several factors are expected to influence the market this week.

Stock Market Weekly Forecast From 11 to 14 August; Nifty Prediction Ahead

The sentiment in the Indian stock market has weakened, with the Nifty 50 index falling decisively below the 24,500 mark. The index now appears to be finding support near its 200-day exponential moving average (200-DEMA) around 24,000. On the upside, 24,550 is likely to act as the immediate resistance level.

"India's market sentiment is currently the weakest globally. Leading Fear and Greed index suggests that Indian market is nearing "extreme fear" territory.The market is facing headwinds from trade tariff uncertainties, diminishing hopes for additional monetary stimulus, and limited room for fiscal support," said market expert Mr. Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner, Equity and PMS, AlphaaMoney

According to Bloomberg data, the large-cap index has declined for six consecutive weeks, falling 0.9% this week. Meanwhile, the NSE Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 indices have dropped for three straight weeks, losing 1.2% and 1.9%, respectively, this week.

Factors Driving Market Sentiment This Week

Trump Tariffs Imposition on Indian Imports

One major concern is the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on Indian imports, which stand at 50%. These tariffs will take effect from 27 August. The aggressive stance and unpredictability of these tariffs have raised concerns in Indian markets. Experts suggest that if implemented, India's GDP growth rate could drop by 1%. The focus will be on discussions surrounding these tariffs.

Inflation Data from India and the US

This week, inflation data from both India and the United States will be released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for both countries is expected on 12 August, while the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data will be available on 14 August. Inflation in July might decrease from 2.10% to 1.8%, which could impact market sentiments.

Trump-Putin Meeting

Another significant event is the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for 15 August. This meeting gains importance amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, drawing global attention.

Foreign Portfolio Investors' Activity

Since July, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have been selling in domestic markets. In July alone, FPIs sold shares worth Rs 47,666.68 crore in the cash segment. The selling trend continues into August with sales amounting to Rs 14,018.87 crore so far. On 8 August, FPIs purchased shares worth Rs 1,932.81 crore in cash segments but it's still early days to predict their trend towards domestic markets.

Q1 Earnings This Week

This week also sees over 2000 companies releasing their quarterly results according to BSE data. Key companies like Bajaj Consumer Care, Ashok Leyland, ONGC, IOCL, Hindalco Industries, BPCL and Hindustan Copper are among those whose results will be closely watched.

"Looking ahead, markets will enter the final leg of the Q1 earnings season, which is expected to drive stock-specific moves. Overall, we expect equities to remain in consolidation mode until there is clarity on the tariff front. In this volatile environment, investors may focus on domestic-oriented themes, while traders are advised to keep positions light," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research for Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

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