Stock Market Outlook: Sensex Support Seen at 81,900; Will Nifty Hold Above 25,000? Bearish Candles Persist!

The Indian stock market is expected to open higher on Wednesday, July 23, following a strong rally in global markets. The Gift Nifty, which reflects early market sentiment, was trading around 25,158, about 65 points higher than the Nifty futures' previous close, indicating a positive start for the day.

On Tuesday, the domestic market remained volatile and ended flat with a slight negative bias. The Sensex dropped just 13.53 points, or 0.02%, to close at 82,186.81. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 slipped 29.80 points, or 0.12%, to settle at 25,060.90. Despite the fall, Nifty managed to stay above the important 25,000 mark.

Sensex Prediction Today: Will 82,200 Be Broken?

The Sensex is forming a lower top pattern on the daily chart, along with a bearish candle, pointing to potential short-term weakness. Analysts suggest that if the index breaks below 82,200, it could quickly fall towards 81,900, and even further to 81,500, if selling pressure continues.

However, a strong global setup could support a bounce-back if the index sustains above current levels.

Nifty 50 Prediction Today

Nifty also formed a bearish candle with a large body and small wicks on both ends. This shows weak buying interest. Based on weekly options data, the highest call open interest is seen at the 25,100 strike, followed by 25,200 and 25,500.

This technical formation suggests a waning bullish sentiment and possible consolidation or downside pressure in the short term. Resistance is expected around key levels, especially at the 25,100 and 25,200 strikes, which hold the highest Call open interest with 1.27 crore and 1.26 crore contracts, respectively.

Additionally, the 25,500 strike has also attracted considerable interest, indicating that any upside may be limited as traders have aggressively built positions at these levels. Further confirming this bearish stance, significant Call writing activity was observed at the 25,200 (54.76 lakh contracts), 25,100 (51.8 lakh contracts), and 25,150 (41.28 lakh contracts) strikes. Meanwhile, unwinding of 1.18 lakh contracts at the 24,900 strike suggests traders are pulling back from bearish bets at lower levels.

On the support side, the 25,000 strike has emerged as a critical level for Nifty, with the highest Put open interest of 84.25 lakh contracts. This is likely to act as a strong cushion in case of further downside. Additional support is also seen at the 25,100 and 24,500 strikes, which hold 75.11 lakh and 70.22 lakh contracts, respectively.

In terms of Put writing, the 24,500 strike saw the highest addition of 12.54 lakh contracts, followed closely by 24,700 (12.51 lakh) and 25,050 (12.46 lakh), indicating strong bullish bets at these levels.

However, there was notable Put unwinding at the 24,900 strike, where 11.08 lakh contracts were shed, hinting at reduced conviction among traders for support holding firmly at that level. Overall, while 25,000 may provide a key support floor, the upside appears capped with heavy resistance in the 25,100-25,200 range.

Disclaimer

The recommendations made above are by market analysts and are not advised by either the author, nor Greynium Information Technologies. The author, nor the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision.