Stock Market Outlook: Sensex, Nifty Expected to Stay Under Pressure, Facing Resistance at 25,000

Indian stock indices, Sensex and Nifty 50 are poised to open lower on Friday, weighed down by bearish global cues. Market sentiment soured after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on several countries, sparking renewed concerns over global trade tensions.

Stock Market Outlook August 1

Early indications from the Gift Nifty suggest a subdued start, with the index hovering around 24,725-roughly 146 points below the previous Nifty futures close-hinting at a likely gap-down opening for the domestic benchmarks.

The Indian stock market ended lower on Thursday after a highly volatile trading session. Despite bouncing back into positive territory by midday, both Sensex and Nifty faced renewed selling pressure in the final hour of trade.

Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today: Trader's Sentiment Impacted by Trump Tariff

The Sensex declined 296.28 points, or 0.36%, to close at 81,185.58. In parallel, the Nifty slipped around 86 points to end near 24,750, as investor sentiment weakened following the tariff announcement. Initial weakness resurfaced toward the close, leading to a firm close in the red.

The Sensex showed a positive sign by forming a higher bottom on intraday charts. However, the Nifty 50 is showing signs of weakness, with a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart-suggesting a short-term downtrend.

Nifty50 Technical View

According to weekly options data, the Nifty's key resistance level in the short term is around the 25,000 strike, which has the highest Call open interest with 49.79 lakh contracts. Other important resistance levels are at 25,200 and 25,500 strikes, with 37.7 lakh and 36.59 lakh Call contracts respectively.

The most Call selling (called Call writing) happened at the 25,000 strike, where 20.85 lakh new contracts were added. This was followed by the 25,500 and 24,800 strikes, which saw 18.5 lakh and 13.33 lakh new Call contracts added. There was very little Call contract selling or closing in the 24,000 to 25,550 strike range.

On the Put side, the strongest support for Nifty is around the 24,000 strike, which has the highest Put open interest at 46.01 lakh contracts. Other key support levels are at 24,500 and 24,800 strikes with 36.7 lakh and 32.48 lakh Put contracts respectively.

Most Put selling (Put writing) took place at the 24,000 strike, with 22.99 lakh new contracts added. This was followed by the 24,700 and 24,500 strikes, adding 18.5 lakh and 16.43 lakh Put contracts. The biggest Put contract unwinding happened at the 25,050 and 25,150 strikes, where 16,350 and 13,725 contracts were closed.

Asian Markets Reflect Caution

Asian markets tracked the global risk-off mood. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined 0.71%, while the Topix index remained flat. South Korea's Kospi nosedived 3.45%, and the Kosdaq fell 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng futures also pointed to a weak opening, underscoring regional caution.

"Obviously, a ten-fold rise in tariffs will be a drag on growth, to the extent of 20-30bps. But, it would be a mistake to extrapolate the announced tariffs to eternity. We expect a trade deal in the next 6 months leading to reductions in rate of tariffs, maybe in the region of 15%. Meanwhile, do expect small cut to EPS estimates of major indices as the correlation of GDP growth and corporate profitability is highest for India vs. peers," Mr. Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner. Equity and PMS at AlphaaMoney said.

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