Stock Market Outlook: Gift Nifty Falls, Sensex, Nifty May Stay Under Pressure as 50% Trump Tariffs Hit India

The Indian stock markets are expected to open on a cautious note on Thursday, August 7, as benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 react to escalating global trade tensions. This comes after US President Donald Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, citing India's alleged direct and indirect import of oil from Russia. With this move, the total tariffs on Indian goods now stand at a steep 50%, raising concerns among investors and traders alike.

Stock Market Outlook August 7: Gift Nifty Down Today, Trigged By Additional Tariffs Imposition on India

Adding to the subdued mood, Gift Nifty was seen trading around the 24,594 level early Thursday, indicating a negative opening for domestic indices. This reflects a discount of about 40 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, further underscoring investor unease.

The decline in Gift Nifty was also linked directly to the White House's announcement of the additional 25% tariff, which has effectively doubled the total import duties on Indian goods.

RBI Policy, Global Concerns Weigh on Markets

The domestic equity markets had already ended lower on Wednesday, after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) concluded its monetary policy meeting. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged and maintained a 'Neutral' policy stance, which failed to boost investor sentiment.

Markets reacted negatively to both the monetary policy decision and the geopolitical news. The Nifty 50 fell by 75.35 points, or 0.31%, to close at 24,574.20, while the Sensex declined by 166.26 points, or 0.21%, settling at 80,543.99.

Sensex Prediction Today: Technical Outlook for 7 August Trading

On the technical front, Sensex continues to show signs of weakness. It is still forming a lower top pattern, and has created a small bearish candle on daily charts, which is seen as a negative signal. Market analysts expect further consolidation or downside movement if the index fails to find fresh positive triggers.

Nifty Prediction Today, 7 August: Weakness May Persist

Nifty 50 also remains under pressure, as it formed a bearish candle on the daily timeframe and continues to exhibit a lower highs-lower lows structure. This technical setup signals ongoing weakness. Moreover, the index is currently trading below all key moving averages, and momentum indicators are showing further deterioration. With geopolitical risks intensifying, bearish sentiment is likely to continue.

Option Chain Insights: Key Levels to Watch

Options data for the weekly expiry suggest that the 25,000 strike holds the highest Call open interest with 1.83 crore contracts, making it a strong resistance level. It is followed by 24,700 (1.41 crore contracts) and 24,800 (1.17 crore contracts) strikes.

Maximum Call writing was seen at the 25,000 strike with an addition of 50.38 lakh contracts, followed by 24,600 and 24,700 strikes with additions of 48.33 lakh and 39.61 lakh contracts, respectively. Meanwhile, maximum Call unwinding occurred at the 25,250 strike, which shed 8.39 lakh contracts.

On the Put side, the 24,000 strike held the highest open interest (1.05 crore contracts), marking a strong support zone. This was followed by the 24,600 (83.42 lakh) and 24,500 (81.03 lakh) strikes.

Maximum Put writing was observed at 24,550 (19.24 lakh contracts), followed by 24,000 and 23,900 strikes. The most significant Put unwinding was at the 24,650 strike (17.8 lakh contracts), indicating declining support at higher levels.

Bank Nifty Forecast Today

Bank Nifty showed signs of consolidation, as per analysts at Bajaj Broking. It formed a small bullish candle that remained within the previous session's range, indicating indecision. The 56,300-56,500 range acts as a critical resistance zone. A sustained move above this range could hint at weakening bearish momentum or a potential trend reversal.

"On the upside, resistance is seen in the 56,300 - 56,500 range, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the recent breakdown zone. A sustained move above this level would be an early indication of weakening bearish momentum or a potential pause in the current downtrend. Overall, the index is expected to trade within a defined range of 54,900 to 56,400 in the near term, with a clear directional move likely only after a decisive breakout from this range," stated the brokerage report.

For now, Bank Nifty is expected to trade between 54,900 and 56,400 and a clear directional breakout is awaited for further movement.

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