Sensex, Nifty Prediction Today: Indian Stock Market Likely to Trade Cautiously After Fed Rate Cut Decision

Indian equities are expected to trade cautiously on December 11, 2025, following the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the interest rates by 25 bps. Benchmark indices ended lower on December 10, with the Sensex closing at 84,391.27, down 275 points (0.32%), and the Nifty50 at 25,758, down 81.65 points (0.32%). Broader markets also recorded declines, with the midcap index falling 1% and the small-cap index down 0.9%.

Stock Market Outlook Today After Fed Rate Cut Decision in December Meeting 2025

"Markets are likely to track global cues after the Fed's rate cut, with investors digesting the FOMC commentary for signals on U.S. economic growth and future interest rate direction," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. "While the rate cut is generally supportive for risk assets, persistent FII outflows, a softer rupee, and ongoing trade uncertainties will keep sentiment cautious in the short term."

How Fed Interest Rate Decision Will Impact Indian Stock Market Today?

Experts note that the Fed's rate cut is supportive for equities globally, which may boost short-term risk appetite. However, Indian markets will continue to monitor foreign fund flows, U.S.-India trade developments, and domestic macroeconomic cues.

"Markets will likely remain cautious, trading in defined ranges, as investors digest global and domestic developments. While lower U.S. rates are positive for equities, persistent selling pressure and currency volatility may cap gains," Khemka added.

"The FED's 25bps rate cut in December signals a measured shift toward easing policy, however only one additional cut is expected in 2026, which underscores the FED's caution, with some policymakers still wary of easing too aggressively," Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead, VT Markets.

Stocks in Focus Today: Sector Trends and FII Activity

On December 10, the metals sector was the only gainer, rising nearly 0.5% on firm global prices. In contrast, IT, capital goods, realty, consumer durables, PSU banks, and private banks fell between 0.5% and 1%. The Nifty Capital Markets index declined to 4,482, continuing its slide amid broad-based weakness.

Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 3,760 crore, which could limit upside momentum in the immediate term.

Nifty Prediction Today; How Nifty50 Will Trade on 11 December 2025

According to Bajaj Broking Research, Nifty is expected to consolidate in the 25,700-26,200 range following the Fed decision. "The index formed a bearish candle with a long shadow, signaling selling pressure at higher levels. Sustaining above 25,700-25,800 will be crucial for continuation of the positive momentum seen over the last three months. A break below 25,700 may extend the corrective decline toward the 100-day EMA around 25,500-25,400 levels," the brokerage noted.

"A decisive break below 25,700 will drag the Nifty towards the 25,500-25,300 levels. On the upside, 26,000 and 26,325 will act as strong hurdles for the index. Thus, short-term traders are advised to adopt a sell-on-bounce strategy," said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd.

Bank Nifty Outlook Today

Bank Nifty is also likely to remain range-bound post-Fed, consolidating between 58,500-60,100. Bajaj Broking Research said, "Key short-term support lies at 58,200-58,600, while resistance is seen at 59,500, with the major hurdle at the recent all-time high of 60,100. The index may extend the current consolidation before taking directional cues from global developments and domestic fund flows."

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