Sensex, Nifty Prediction On June 19: Will Indian Stock Market RISE Or FALL After US Fed Meeting On Thursday?

The trading session in the Indian stock market on Thursday, June 19 is expected to be swayed by global cues, especially the outcomes of US Fed rate. As per experts, as long as Sensex and Nifty perform below 81,400 and 24,800 pivotal levels, the downward trajectory is likely to stay. On Wednesday, Sensex and Nifty closed on a bearish tone, dragged down by media, IT and metal stocks.

"We expect Thursday's session to be guided by global cues including the Fed policy outcome and developments on the geopolitical front. Benchmark indices are anticipated to remain range-bound, with possible rotation toward defensive sectors amidst global uncertainty," Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd said.

Sensex, Nifty:

After market hours of June 18, Sensex closed at 81,444.66, down by 138.64 points or 0.17%. Stocks like TCS, Adani Ports, HUL, Bajaj Finserv, Nestle, and NTPC were top losers, shrugging off gains in IndusInd Bank, Titan, Maruti Suzuki, and M&M.

Of the total 4,115 stocks traded on BSE during June 18th session, 2,528 stocks declined and 1,460 stocks advanced, while rest 127 stocks were flat. BSE-listed companies market value stood at Rs 4,46,28,265.89 crore.

Meanwhile, Nifty 50 dropped by 41.35 points or 0.17% to finish at 24,812.05. Nifty IT index, Nifty Media, and Nifty Metal indexes plunged by 0.7% to 1.3%.

Explaining the performance, Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments said, "The domestic market failed to maintain the opening gains as the continuing tensions in the Middle East & volatility in oil prices dragged the overall sentiment. However, auto & consumer discretionary gained in expectations of a demand revival. With the supportive base of the domestic macros, the long-term outlook remains intact, and investors are likely to be focused on high-quality large-cap stocks until greater clarity emerges."

Stock Market Outlook For June 19:

Market sentiment in the near term will remain influenced by evolving geopolitical developments and fluctuations in oil prices. The US Fed meeting outcome along with new dot plot projection on rates path and commentary will be keenly watched for central bank outlook amid heightened geopolitical tensions, as per Satish Chandra Aluri, Lemonn Markets Desk.

Along the similar lines, Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking said, "Markets will react to the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting during early trades on Thursday. While most expect no change in interest rates, the Fed's commentary-especially in light of the prevailing global uncertainty caused by geopolitical tensions and trade tariff concerns-will be more crucial."

Technical Outlook Of Sensex, Nifty:

In Lemonn expert's view, technically, Nifty managed to close above the 24800 level after taking support near 24750. On the upside, 24900-25000 acts as an immediate resistance zone while 24750 will be immediate support on the downside.

Meanwhile, Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities said, "Technically, Nifty/Sensex has formed indecisive pattern at equilibrium levels on daily charts that indicate at temporary weakness. We believe that as long as the market is trading below 24,800/81400, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, 24,725/81250 would be the immediate support zone for traders. Below this, the market could slip to 24,500/80600. On the flip side, above 24,900/81850, the sentiment could change. If it moves above this level, it could rally up to 25,000-25,100/82100-82500."

To investors, Mishra recommends maintaining a cautious approach until there is more clarity. In the meantime, participants can consider selectively accumulating stocks that are showing relative strength amid the volatility, with a preference for large-cap and stronger mid-cap names.

On June 18, FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 per cent, to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.

In its statement, FOMC said, "Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated."

Disclaimer: The recommendations made above are by market analysts and are not advised by either the author, nor Greynium Information Technologies. The author, nor the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision.