Reliance Industries (RIL) is in focus on July 18, ahead of its June 2025 quarterly earnings. Reliance traded in red, with the stock price struggling around the Rs 1,470 levels. Along with Reliance, its subsidiaries Reliance Retail and Reliance Jio will also declare their Q1 results. Among many key factors to look out for will be announcements related to rewards like dividends after a 1:1 bonus payout.
Reliance Industries (RIL) Share Price:
At the time of writing, Reliance traded at Rs 1,471.45 apiece, down 0.4% on the BSE, with a market capitalisation of Rs 19,90,694.39 crore. On the earnings day, RIL shares ranged from an intraday high of Rs 1485.05 to a low of Rs 1469.00 apiece.
Reliance Industries Q1 Results Preview:
"RIL's 1QFY26 EBITDA is likely to be up 2.4% QoQ at INR 449bn, led by 3.5% QoQ growth in Digital EBITDA on robust subs gains and ARPU growth (driven by upgrades, 1 more day QoQ in 1QFY26 and residual flow-through of Jul'24 tariff hike)," said JM Financial note.
Further, the analysts pointed out that Reliance's retail business EBITDA may grow at ~15% YoY, after robust growth of 9-14% YoY witnessed in the last 2 quarters, with the clean-up of the low-margin B2B business now behind. O2C EBITDA is likely to be flat QoQ as lower crude throughput and marginal inventory loss will offset slight QoQ improvement in GRM; E&P business EBITDA may decline 2.9% QoQ on natural decline in KG D6 gas output.
On a consolidated basis, Kotak Institutional Equities said, "We expect EBITDA for 1) Digital services to further increase 3.7% qoq (up 20% yoy), driven by further flow through of tariff hike. 2) Retail to be up 20% yoy (up 1.4% qoq), 3) O2C to increase by 19% yoy (up 3.5% qoq on likely better margins part offset by refinery shutdown), and 4) E&P to decline 7.5% yoy (down 6% qoq) on lower volumes/realisation."
On a standalone basis, it is expected that RIL's EBITDA will improve 5.1% yoy (flat qoq).
Key Assumptions In Reliance Q1 Results Are:
As per JM's note, key assumptions: a) O2C EBITDA is likely to be flattish QoQ at INR 151bn as partial refinery shutdown-led decline in refining throughput (down 1.8% QoQ at 16.2mmt) and marginal inventory loss largely offset the benefit of slight improvement in GRM to ~USD 10.0/bbl (vs. RIL's implied GRM of ~USD 9.6/bbl in 4QFY25) and strong auto-fuel marketing margin; further, petchem margin is expected to remain weak and largely flattish QoQ; b) E&P EBITDA to decline 2.9% QoQ to INR 50bn on natural decline in KG D6 gas output; c) Retail EBITDA is likely to be up 14.8% YoY, though down 3.1% QoQ, to INR 65bn; d) Digital EBITDA is expected to grow 3.5% QoQ to INR 179bn, led by robust 7.2mn subscriber gains and a 1.8% QoQ rise in ARPU to INR 210, driven by upgrades, 1 more day QoQ in 1QFY26 and residual flow-through of Jul'24 tariff hike.
Reliance Jio Q1 Results Preview:
"We expect EBITDA for R-Jio to further increase ~4.2% qoq (18.6 % yoy) on further benefit of tariff hike from July 2024," Kotak said, "We assume blended ARPUs to rise to Rs209.5 (from Rs206 qoq) and a 2.2% increase in quarter-end subscribers."
Reliance Retail Q1 Results Preview:
Kotak expects EBITDA to increase 21% yoy (up 1.1% qoq). EBITDA margins are expected to be largely flat at ~7.3%.
For FY25, Reliance posted gross revenue of Rs 1,071,174 crore, rising by 7.1% YoY. Moreover, for the fiscal, the giant's Profit After Tax and Share of Profit/(Loss) of Associates & JVs increased by 2.9% Y-o-Y to Rs 81,309 crore ($ 9.5 billion).
Is There Any Dividend Announcement?
Reliance has a strong track record of delivering dividends to its investors from its profitability. However, since it turned ex-bonus last year during Diwali, the company has not paid any dividends or other listed benefits.
Will Reliance announce a dividend or any other incentives for shareholders on July 18? Not at the moment!
As per the regulatory filing, the company has only intimated about the Q1FY26 result date, and no further information on dividends or other rewards. However, any such announcement will be keenly watched.
Since May 2003, Reliance has distributed 24 dividends so far, as per Trendlyne. In 2024, the company paid a final dividend of Rs 10 per share for FY25, which was the highest in seven years. Adjusted for bonuses and splits, Reliance's dividend yield is around 0.33%. Without adjustment, the dividend yield comes at 0.67%.
The last reward to investors was a 1:1 bonus issue, for which the ex-date was on October 28, 2024. 1:1 bonus ratio meant Reliance rewarded 1 free share to eligible investors for every 1 equity share.
JM has maintained a BUY on Reliance. It said, "We maintain BUY on RIL as we believe RIL has industry leading capabilities across businesses to drive robust 15-20% EPS CAGR over the next 3-5 years, particularly driven by both consumer businesses with Jio's ARPU is expected to rise at ~13% CAGR over FY25-28." The brokerage has also raised its target price to Rs 1,700 on Reliance from earlier Rs 1,580.
Disclaimer: The recommendations made above are by market analysts and are not advised by either the author, nor Greynium Information Technologies. The author, nor the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision.
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