Q1 Result Preview: Tata Steel Profit To Rise QoQ; UK Business May Improve; Monsoon To Affect Volume Growth

Q1 Result Review: Tata's flagship steel producer is likely to see a sequential increase in its profit margins and revenue in the June quarter of financial year 2025-26 (FY26). The company may see an improvement in its United Kingdom-based business. However, the ongoing monsoon season-led weakness may impact its steel volume growth, according to analysts.

Tata Steel shares were trading 0.94% higher at Rs 161.15 per share on BSE at 1:30 pm with a market capitalisation of Rs 2,01,295.51 crore. The stock touched an intraday high of Rs 161.45 per share on the BSE on Monday.

Tata Steel Q1 Preview

Tata Steel's consolidated profit is likely to increase sequentially; that is, the company's profit is likely to increase in the June quarter compared to its profit in the March quarter of the financial year 2024-25. Here are the key details of Tata Steel's Q1 result expectations ahead of the announcement on Wednesday.

Tata Steel Q1 Result Preview: Net Profit, Revenue, EBITDA

Tata Steel's net profit after tax is likely to increase nearly 32% on a quarter-on-quarter basis and by 70% on a year-on-year basis during the period. Whereas, its revenue may see a 7-10% annual decline in Q1FY26. The company's Earnings Before Interest Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) is likely to see a 2% decline in the June quarter against the March quarter, according to Systematix Institutional Equities.

Contrastiongly, Emkay Research sees a 9% sequential increase in Tata Steel's EBITDA margin in the June quarter, driven by better realisation and coking coal cost. As per the brokerage, the better realisation is likely to help it in boosting earnings.

"Expect ~4% QoQ increase in NSR at TSI to Rs63,884/t; volumes to decline 4% YoY to 4.8mt; EBITDA/t to see increase of Rs1,996 QoQ to ~Rs14,459/t. TSE to breakeven with EBITDA/t of USD6/t as TSUK losses decline to GBD76/t and TSN EBITDA of GBP 37/t. TSE volumes to decline 2% YoY to 2.1mt," noted PL Capital in its report.

Tata Steel's UK Business

Tata Steel's UK business is likely to show some recovery during the quarter under review. "We expect the UK operations to see EBITDA loss of Rs4.7bn in Q1FY26 compared with the loss of Rs8.7bn in Q4FY25. Further, we expect Netherlands operations to register EBITDA of Rs5.5bn," noted Emkay Research.

Tata Steel Share Price Trend

Tata Steel shares opened higher at Rs 158.95 per share on BSE on Tuesday. The stock had touched a 52-week high mark of Rs 170.2 on BSE on 30 September. Whereas, the stock dipped to its 52-week low mark of Rs 122.60 per share on 3 January, 2025.

The stock value has declined around 0.06% in a month, but has increased by 23% in six months. Meanwhile, its valuation has surged by around 17.95% since the beginning of the year 2025.