Q1 Result Preview Metals, Mining: Mixed Show Expected in Q1; JSW Steel, SAIL, Vedanta, Hindalco Top Picks

Q1 Result Preview: Metal and Mining companies are likely to show a contrasting trend in the June quarter results due to multiple reasons, including weak base metal prices, export pressure, early monsoon, heatwaves, maintenance shutdowns, and trade tensions amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs. JSW Steel, Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL), Vedanta, Hindalco, Tata Steel, and other companies have emerged as top metal stock picks by brokerages.

The June quarterly results season for the financial year 2025-26 has begun, and metal sector stocks have already entered the consolidation territory. Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on copper imports and Q1 results have sent jitters among stock market investors. Nifty Metal thematic index has declined 0.68% in the past five days. The sectoral index made some recovery on Tuesday and closed 0.04% higher at 9,411.95 points.

Metal, Mining Q1FY26 Result Preview

Metal producers in India will continue to get the benefit of higher domestic steel prices (aided by safeguard duty) and lower coking coalk prices. However the benefit is negated by weaker set of volume number in the first half of year FY26, according to brokerage PL Capital.

Given the present scenario, metal companies under the ferrous segment like Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel & Power, SAIL, etc, are expected to report a sequential improvement in earnings, primarily driven by better realization and lower coking coal costs, according to Emkay Research. Whereas, non ferrous companies, including Vedanta, Nalco, Coal India, Gravitas are likely to see a mild decline in earnings on a quarter on quarter (QoQ) basis because of lower alumina/aluminium and zinc prices, added the brokerage in its report.

In a contrasting view, Systematix Institutional Equities sees non ferrous players (like Hindustan Zinc (HZ), Vedanta (VEDL), Hindalco (HNDL), and NALCO (NACL)) to report growth in revenue and EBITDA margins in June quarter.

Top Metal Stocks To Buy Ahead of Q1

Vedanta Q1 Result Preview

The Anil Agarwal-owned conglomerate is likely to report soft Q1FY26 results, with EBITDA of Rs105.5 billion driven by a sequentially flat performance in its aluminium segment and weak performance from Zinc India, according to Emkay Research. Contrastingly, Systematix Institutional Equities sees an 8-6% annual growth in Vedanta's revenue and EBITDA margins in the June quarter.

"We expect VEDL to report a 10% YoY EBITDA growth on strong deliveries in the aluminium, Zinc International, and ferrous segments partially offset by weak oil and gas performance," read a Systematix Institutional report.

Tata Steel Q1 Result Preview

Tata Steel is likely to benefit from favourable steel prices in Europe which are likely to help the company to cut its losses for the quarter. However, the company may see a 3% annual decline in revenue on the basis of lower steel prices, according to Systematix Institutional Equities.

However, the company may see a sequential improvement in its profit margins and revenue due to better realisations and coking coal benefits. "We expect TATA to report consol EBITDA of Rs70.9bn in Q1 (up 9.1% QoQ) led by better realization and coking coal cost benefits partially offset by softer volumes, and breakeven EBITDA in the Europe business," noted Emkay Research.

But monsoon led weakness may impact the firm's near-term volume growth. "We incorporate weak H1FY26 and cut FY26 EBITDA as monsoon led weakness seems impacting the near-term volume growth. We cut our FY26E/27E EBITDA for Tata Steel (TATA) by 5.6%/1% on weaker than expected H1FY26 margin performance," noted PL Capital in its Metal and MIning quarterly report.

JSW Steel Q1 Preview

JSW Steel may see a sequentially better quarter, mainly driven by better realisation and lower coking coal cost. "We expect JSTL to report consolidated EBITDA of Rs71.2bn (up 11.7% QoQ and 29.3% YoY), mainly driven by better realization and lower coking coal cost, which is partially offset by higher iron ore cost/t in Q1. EBITDA spread in Q1 is expected to improve by Rs2,100/t to Rs10,623/t," noted Emkay Research.

Reaffirming the the view, Systematix Institutional Equites sees JSW Steel as outperforming its peers in the ferrous companies segment due to better realisations and lower raw material costs.

"We expect primary steel producers within our coverage (JSW Steel (JSTL), SAIL (SAIL), and Tata Steel (TATA)) to report 3% YoY decline in revenue due to lower steel prices. However, the companies in the sector are likely to report 20% YoY EBITDA growth," noted Systematix.

"Expect NSR to improve ~5% QoQ as both HRC & longs were up in Q1FY26. Std volume to remain flat YoY to ~5.1mt and cons volume at 6.92mt (up ~12-13% YoY aided by JVML ramp up); std EBITDA/t to grow by Rs2,304 QoQ to ~Rs11,087, higher IO prices negating coking coal benefit to certain extent," noted PL Capital.

SAIL Q1 Result Preview

SAIL is expewcted to see a marginal increase in its EBITDA margins during the June quarter due to higher steel price assumptions.

"For SAIL, we raise our FY26E/27E EBITDA by 1% each on higher steel price assumptions. As SAIL remains a price play on domestic steel prices in the medium term, maintain 'Hold' with revised TP of Rs136 based on 5.5x EV of Mar'27 EBITDA (earlier Rs133)," added PL Capital.

"We expect SAIL to report sequentially better production of 4.8mt (up 0.8% QoQ; up 13.7% YoY), with sales volume of 4.7mt in Q1 (down 12.2% QoQ and up 16.7% in YoY) as Q4 FY25 witnessed elevated sales from inventories and third-party volumes. We estimate EBITDA of Rs37.9bn in Q1 (flat sequentially and up 56.4% YoY), driven by better flats and longs prices, coupled with coking coal cost benefits leading to sequential EBITDA/t improvement," stated Emkay Research.

Hindalco Q1 Result Preview

"For Hindalco, we raise our FY26/27E EBITDA by 1%/2% respectively incorporating better LME. Improvement in Novelis remains the key trigger for the stock however with current uncertainties amid higher tariffs, we maintain 'Accumulate' with revised TP of Rs738 (earlier Rs724)," stated PL Capital.

Emkay Research expect Hindalco to report a decline in upstream aluminium EBITA of Rs 39.5bn vs Rs48.4bn in Q4 due to sequentially lower aluminium prices and lower realisation from external alumina sales.

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