Oil Prices Edge Higher As Venezuela Sanctions And OPEC+ Supply Outlook Remains Steady

Oil prices edge higher as traders judge political tension in Venezuela, firm U.S. sanctions and unrest in Iran against a market still well supplied with crude. Investors focus on whether upheaval in the OPEC member could disturb exports after U.S. President Donald Trump seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

By 0024 GMT, Brent crude futures gain 17 cents to reach $60.92 a barrel, trimming earlier losses. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rises 11 cents to $57.43 a barrel. Analysts say these small moves show that plentiful global supply continues to cap any strong price reaction.

Oil prices and Venezuela oil sanctions after Maduro seizure

Trump states that Washington will assume control of the oil-producing nation and confirms that the U.S. embargo on all Venezuelan oil stays fully in force. The United States snatched Maduro from Caracas over the weekend, deepening uncertainty over control of state assets and future export policy.

Two sources familiar with state oil company PDVSA operations report that the U.S. strike to extract the president causes no damage to Venezuela's production or refining network. Facilities continue running, suggesting any near-term export shortfall would come from sanctions or political decisions rather than physical disruption.

Oil prices, Venezuela oil outlook and OPEC+ supply stance

Goldman Sachs keeps its 2026 oil price forecasts unchanged, while describing only limited market risks from the latest events. "We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short-run from Venezuela depending on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a January 4 note.

Helima Croft, RBC Capital’s head of commodities research, highlights how future sanctions shifts could change output volumes. "Certainly, we think full sanctions relief could unlock several hundred kb/d of production over a 12-month period in an orderly transition situation." "However, all bets are off in a chaotic change of power scenario like what occurred in Libya or Iraq," she added.

Oil prices, Venezuela oil politics and wider regional tensions

A senior Venezuelan official insists on Sunday that the interim government remains united behind Maduro, signalling no immediate internal split in leadership. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, decide the same day to keep their collective output steady, despite political stress among several members.

Markets also watch Iran after Trump threatens on Friday to intervene in any harsh response to protests there, which increases geopolitical tension in another OPEC producer. Rights groups say at least 16 people die during a week of demonstrations over surging inflation across Iran, adding another source of concern for energy traders.

The latest moves come as a Guinea-flagged, sanctioned oil tanker, MT Bandra, is seen moored beside another vessel at the El Palito terminal near Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, on 29 December 2025. Reporting is by Florence Tan, with editing by Jamie Freed and Sonali Paul, under The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.