IRFC, RVNL, BEML, RITES, Texmaco, Titagarh Shares Down YTD: What Will Trigger Railway Stocks In July 2025?

Railway Stocks: The majority of railway stocks have crashed year-to-date, in the range of 3% to 16% with the exceptions of BEML and RailTel Corporation. Large caps like IRFC, RVNL, and IRCON are down 6-8% YTD, however, the most selling pressure has been seen in stocks like Texmaco Rail and Titagarh Rail Systems. Railway stocks are in focus ahead of the Indian railways fare hike which will come into effect from July 1. Not just that a host of changes are going to take place from next month, to enhance train passengers' experience.

Railway Stocks Performance YTD:

From January 1 to June 26, 2025, Titagarh Rail shares have nosedived by 15.33%, while Texmaco Rail gained by 9.6%. Stocks like IRFC, RVNL, and IRCON International plunged by around 7% each, while stocks like RITES dropped 5.5%, while the decline in IRCTC and Concor shares is slower compared to other railway stocks by 2-3%.

The only gainers in railway stocks are BEML and RailTel Corporation that surged by 8% and 5% YTD.

Despite the latest decline, majority of experts are optimistic on railways growth trajectory owing to healthy order books and the government's CAPEX push.

As per the Railway Ministry's data, Indian Railways budget has increased by more than 9 times since 2014. Indian railways have introduced World class trains such as:

Vande Bharat Trains: A Semi high speed train which offers comfortable ride with top notch amenities, covering 24 States/UTs along with 333 districts. A total 68 Vande Bharat Trains (136 Services) are currently operational in the country. 400 world-class Vande Bharat Trains are planned to be manufactured.

Amrit Bharat Train: It is a non-AC, push-pull train which provides a jerk free journey with enhanced safety and improved amenities, designed and developed by Indian Railways at ICF Chennai. Total 3 Amrit Bharat Trains (6 Services) are in currently in operation.

Namo Bharat Rapid Rail: It is a short distance service that operates on an inter-city Network, designed and developed by Indian Railways at RCF Kapurthala. Total 2 Namo Bharat Rapid rail (4 Services) are running currently.

200 new Vande Bharat trains, 100 Amrit Bharat trains, 50 Namo Bharat rapid rail & 17,500 general non-AC coaches are planned to revolutionize travel experience for masses in next 2 to 3 years, the ministry said.

Also, Indian Railways is advancing to achieve the target of Indian Railways' electrification and presently, over 98% of the broad-gauge network has been electrified. Over 2,000 railway stations are solar powered ensuring progress in achieving an energy efficient rail network.

Indian Railways is replacing its fleet with more safe and secure LHB coaches. Since 2014 Indian Railways manufactured more than 37,000 such coaches to provide improved safety and comfort.

That being said, there is strong government backing to modernise and enhance infrastructure for railway sector, which is key positive.

"Government capex has been front-loaded in FY26, with combined central and state spending in March-April rising 68% YoY. This is positive for railway, defence, and capital goods players," Siddhartha Khemka, Head of research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.

During the Budget 2025, the central government announced a total capital expenditure of Rs 2,65,200 crore for railways for FY26. Notably, in both 2024-25 and 2025-26, the budgetary support was Rs 2,52,200 crore, financing 95% of the capital expenditure in these years.

Best Railway Stocks Based Upon CAGR:

Top railway stocks to watch in July 2025, based on 5-year CAGR and other key metrics, as per brokerage Angel One:

16,315.58

CAGR and Net profit margin data is from Angel One. The market cap is updated to latest performance on June 26.

Earlier, Motilal Oswal Wealth Management in their report said, the government is investing a significant amount of money in modernizing the railways. Many listed companies are getting big projects and long term work from the railways. Because of this, investors are now interested in railway stocks for long-term growth.

New Rules From July 1:

Indian railways are likely to hike fares with effect from July 1, 2025. However, the railway fare hike is expected to be minor with non-AC mail and express train charges rising by 1 paise per kilometer. As per reports, the AC class train tickets may see a 2 paise per kilometer hike. Notably, there are no hikes on suburban and monthly season tickets.

Also, Indian Railways announced various changes to the Tatkal ticket booking system. These changes will come into effect from July 1. These are:

1. Aadhaar Authentication for Online Tatkal Bookings: Effective 1st July 2025, Tatkal tickets booked through IRCTC's official website and mobile app will be available only to users authenticated with Aadhaar. Further, Aadhaar-based OTP authentication will become mandatory for Tatkal bookings made online starting 15th July 2025.

2. System-Based OTP Authentication at PRS Counters and Agents: Tatkal tickets booked at computerised Passenger Reservation System (PRS) counters and through authorised agents will require OTP authentication sent to the mobile number provided by the user at the time of booking. This will come into effect from July 15, 2025.

3. Booking Time Restriction for Authorised Agents: To prevent bulk bookings during the critical opening period, authorised ticketing agents of Indian Railways will not be permitted to book opening-day Tatkal tickets during the first 30 minutes of the booking window.

Railway Stocks To BUY?

As of June 26, following are top picks of Prabhudas Lilladher:

Disclaimer: The recommendations made above are by market analysts and are not advised by either the author, nor Greynium Information Technologies. The author, nor the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision.