Gulf States Urge US to Avoid Military Strike on Iran, Warn of Oil Supply Shock and Regional Chaos

Arab states along the Persian Gulf are urging the US administration not to launch a military strike on Iran, warning that any action risks economic and political turmoil across the wider region. Their concerns focus on energy security, domestic stability and potential retaliation, even as US President Donald Trump signals support for demonstrators challenging Iran's leadership.

Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have been pressing these concerns in private meetings with senior US officials, according to the Wall Street Journal. The discussions began after the White House told Gulf governments to prepare for possible steps against Tehran. Publicly, these states stay largely silent while Iran faces nationwide protests.

Gulf states Iran crisis regional risks

Gulf officials warn that any military attempt to remove Iran's leadership could interrupt vital oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that handles about 20% of global crude supplies. They fear sharp economic losses, internal unrest and direct reprisals if US forces move ahead with strikes near their territory.

Saudi officials have also sought to limit their exposure by signalling boundaries to Tehran, according to regional sources. Riyadh has reportedly told Iranian counterparts it will not join any conflict and will refuse US use of Saudi airspace for offensive operations, as Saudi Arabia tries to avoid becoming a direct party to a confrontation.

Gulf states Iran crisis protests and casualties

Inside Iran, protests have continued since they first broke out on Dec. 28 at Tehran's Grand Bazaar. Demonstrators initially rallied against the steep fall in the Iranian rial and deteriorating economic conditions, then marches reached several other cities. Government officials accuse the US and Israel of supporting the unrest, labelling the actions as "riots" and "terrorism."

There are still no official casualty figures from Iranian authorities. However, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a US-based monitoring group, estimates more than 2,550 people have been killed, including members of the security forces and protesters. HRANA reports over 1,134 people have been injured since the protests began across the country.

HRANA further states that at least 10,721 people have been detained and 18,434 people have been taken into custody nationwide. The arrests reportedly span 585 locations, including 187 cities across all 31 provinces. The scale of those numbers deepens Gulf concern that prolonged unrest in Iran could spill over its borders and unsettle neighbouring states.

Gulf states Iran crisis US calculations

Within Washington, decision-making remains fluid. "The president listens to a host of opinions on any given issue, but ultimately makes the decision he feels is best," a White House official said. US President Donald Trump has not issued a final order yet, despite signalling that options remain on the table for action toward Iran.

Trump also expressed clear backing for Iranian protesters through social media posts on Tuesday. The message stated: "HELP IS ON ITS WAY," and encouraged demonstrators to maintain pressure. That visible support adds to Iranian accusations of foreign involvement, while Gulf governments worry that open US alignment with protesters could invite further escalation.

Gulf leaders are uneasy about what might follow any collapse of Iran's current leadership, especially after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leaves the scene. They fear power could shift to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or spark wider regional disorder. "They have no love for the Iranian regime," said former US Ambassador Michael Ratney, "but they also have a great aversion to instability."

Saudi Arabia is pushing ahead with its Vision 2030 programme, which aims to diversify the economy away from oil, and therefore sees regional calm as vital for investment and reform. Analysts note that many Gulf capitals would rather see managed internal reforms in Iran than abrupt regime change, and are expected to keep urging Washington to avoid steps that heighten volatility.