Big Drop: India’s March CPI Inflation Cools to 3.34%; Lowest in Over 5 Years; Relief for Indian Consumers

The National Statistical Office (NSO) has released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, revealing that India's retail inflation eased significantly to 3.34% in March 2025, down from 3.61% in February. This marks the lowest inflation level recorded in over 67 months, providing much-needed relief to Indian households battling rising living costs in recent years.

The sharp decline in retail inflation is a positive sign for the Indian economy and remains well within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) comfort zone of 4% (±2%). March 2025 also became the second consecutive month where inflation stayed under the RBI's target, boosting investor confidence and supporting the case for potential interest rate adjustments in the upcoming quarters.

A key contributor to the easing inflation trend is a noticeable drop in food prices. According to the NSO report, food inflation fell sharply to 2.69% in March, compared to 3.75% in February. This dip was especially pronounced in rural India, where overall inflation cooled to 3.25%, down from 3.79% in the previous month.

During the April 2025 monetary policy meeting, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) noted that falling food prices played a pivotal role in lowering inflation figures throughout January and February. The central bank expects this trend to continue and has forecasted a headline inflation rate of 4.0% for FY26.

The estimated quarterly inflation rates for FY26 are as follows:

This consistent decline in retail inflation provides some relief to consumers and aligns with the Reserve Bank's projections for a stable economic environment moving forward. The current disinflationary trend is likely to improve consumer sentiment, strengthen purchasing power, and create a more stable macroeconomic outlook. Lower inflation may also give the RBI more room to maneuver with regard to policy rates, particularly if global uncertainties or domestic demand conditions shift in the coming months.