1 Dollar = 90 Rupees: Why Bajaj Auto Calls Record Low Rupee 'Party Time'?

The Indian rupee is at a new record low, and that comes as good news to two-wheeler giant Bajaj Auto. The company's executive director, Rakesh Sharma, calls the latest currency movement 'party time,' as a weak rupee works as a cushion to its export demand in the post-festive season. Currently, 1 dollar is equal to a little over 90 rupees, hitting a fresh all-time low.

Indian Rupee Above 90

The local unit slipped past its key pivotal level of 90 per US dollar, recording a new all-time low. At the time of writing, rupee was at 90.296 against dollar, depreciating by 0.42%.

Why Is Rupee At Record Low?

According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, rupee slipped below the 90-mark for the first time, pressured by the absence of a confirmed India-US trade deal and repeated delays in timelines. Markets now want concrete numbers rather than broad assurances, leading to accelerated selling in the rupee over the past few weeks.

Explaining further, Trivedi said, record-high metal and bullion prices have further worsened India's import bill, while steep U.S. tariffs continue to strain export competitiveness. This has kept weakened sentiment across equities compared to global markets and import-heavy sectors such as mineral fuels, machinery, electrical equipment, and gemstones.

Additionally, muted RBI intervention has also contributed to the swift depreciation. With the RBI policy announcement on Friday, markets expect clarity on whether the central bank will step in to stabilize the currency.

On where is rupee headed, Trivedi said, "Technically, the rupee is deeply oversold, and a move back above 89.80 is essential for any meaningful recovery."

Why Bajaj Auto Sees Weak Rupee As Good News?

Executive Director Rakesh Sharma described the currency movement as "party time" for a company. He added, "The softly devaluing rupee is very beneficial to a company like ours, which has got almost 50% of its revenue coming from international sources. It's very helpful to being also competitive in our retail markets." This was reported by CNBC-TV18.

From April to November 2025, Bajaj Auto's two-wheelers sales stood at 28,39,808 units, recording merely 3% upside year-on-year. While commercial vehicle sales outperformed by 17% YoY to 5,36,992 units. In total, Bajaj Auto's domestic sales is at 19,37,265 units, down by 4% YoY.

During the same period, its exports has seen significant jump by 19% YoY to 14,39,535 units as rupee has broadly stayed under pressure so far in the fiscal.

Sharma pointed out that the predictable depreciation of the rupee in recent years has allowed Bajaj Auto to trim its hedge cover against earlier periods of volatility. This gives room to the natural currency gains to flow through. He is expecting December sales to be seasonally weak, but he is optimistic for the Q4 of FY26 owing to post-festive normalisation and robust traction in premium segments.

With weak rupee in picture, a rate cut possibility rises further, which is good for automobile sector as credit demand increases amid easing policy rates.

As per Trading Economics, India remains one of the few major economies without a trade pact with the US, though officials are optimistic about finalizing an agreement soon. The prolonged delay has contributed to the rupee's 5% decline this year, its sharpest annual fall since 2022, making it among Asia's weakest performers, as steep US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods hurt exports to its largest market and dampen foreign investor appetite for Indian equities. A robust Q3 GDP did little to lift the currency and a widening current account deficit added further pressure. Attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting on December 5. The rupee's sustained weakness and a strong GDP print have reduced hopes of a rate cut, despite earlier comments from RBI Governor Malhotra highlighting record-low inflation.

Buy Bajaj Auto Stock?

Analysts at Deven Choksey said, "Management guided for sustained export momentum (15- 20% YoY growth), steady 125cc+ domestic premium growth, and margin maintenance near 20-21%, supported by favorable currency, operating leverage, and PLI benefits (valid till FY28). The company aims to consolidate its EV leadership with new Chetak and Erik e-3W variants, expand Brazil operations, and capitalize on the KTM-Triumph synergy post full control of Pierer Mobility AG (renamed Bajaj Mobility AG). While commodity inflation poses a short-term risk, management expects currency tailwinds and product mix improvements to offset cost pressures." Hence, they have roll-forwarded their valuation basis to Sept'27 estimates. They value Bajaj Auto at 23x Sept'27 EPS, implying a target price of INR 9,770.

At present, Bajaj Auto share price is trading at Rs 8959.15 apiece, down by 1.4% on BSE with market cap of Rs 2,50,191.08 crore.

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